Pac12 Expansion

[filbert]

I think the Pac-N is operating under the impression (I'm tempted to say 'the delusion') that they can recover their Power-5 status if they pick off a few football programs from other P-5 conferences.

I don't see that happening--the programs that would be available to them are high-end mid-major or lowest-end Power-4 schools west of the Mississippi. For the latter, most of those schools were already Pac-12 and jumped ship for the Big 10, Big 12 or ACC already.

I suspect what will happen is that the Pac-N will be reconstituted with whichever higher-end football programs they can still pick off from the Mountain West, along with possibly some Texas schools, Tulsa, Memphis, or other Group of 5 schools. The Mountain West will then go get whichever FBS teams west of the Mississippi that they can pick off from C-USA or the Sun Belt. I consider it quite possible that Air Force will join the American (where Army and Navy already are).

The last resort for the Mountain West will be reaching down to FCS, most likely Cal-Davis, Sacramento State, and/or the Montana schools from the Big Sky, or SDSU and NDSU from the MVFC. But there's a long way to go before either the Mountain West or those FCS schools are ready or willing to do that. I am hoping that things will get resolved before it gets this far because honestly, I think life at the top of FCS is a lot better than life at the bottom (or even the middle) of the FBS would be.

It would be ironic if the tiebreaker for the MWC to decide on what FCS school to invite would be the strength of that school's women's basketball program, wouldn't it?

[Prairiehaas]

I think the Pac-N is operating under the impression (I'm tempted to say 'the delusion') that they can recover their Power-5 status if they pick off a few football programs from other P-5 conferences.

I don't see that happening--the programs that would be available to them are high-end mid-major or lowest-end Power-4 schools west of the Mississippi. For the latter, most of those schools were already Pac-12 and jumped ship for the Big 10, Big 12 or ACC already.

I suspect what will happen is that the Pac-N will be reconstituted with whichever higher-end football programs they can still pick off from the Mountain West, along with possibly some Texas schools, Tulsa, Memphis, or other Group of 5 schools. The Mountain West will then go get whichever FBS teams west of the Mississippi that they can pick off from C-USA or the Sun Belt. I consider it quite possible that Air Force will join the American (where Army and Navy already are).

The last resort for the Mountain West will be reaching down to FCS, most likely Cal-Davis, Sacramento State, and/or the Montana schools from the Big Sky, or SDSU and NDSU from the MVFC. But there's a long way to go before either the Mountain West or those FCS schools are ready or willing to do that. I am hoping that things will get resolved before it gets this far because honestly, I think life at the top of FCS is a lot better than life at the bottom (or even the middle) of the FBS would be.

It would be ironic if the tiebreaker for the MWC to decide on what FCS school to invite would be the strength of that school's women's basketball program, wouldn't it?

I agree. The PAC will not be able to recover P5 status. The PAC has already selected the cream of the MWC and may hold off on selecting additional candidates until the smoke clears a bit and the new members can input. It may also reduce the cost of buyouts. I don't see the PAC going after any FCS programs. The MWC will try to backfill from other G5 conferences and would only go down to FCS if they cannot. Either way the MWC will be weakened.

I think this will take a few more years to play out. There are other issues that may change the landscape; the NIL lawsuit payout mechanism, finalizing NCAA rules on paying players, the status of SEC and Big10 in the NCAA are big ones. I predict a split between the P4 and G5. The money that would be unlocked for the P4 is just too large to ignore. I think that split will include FB and BB programs. I see G5 with their own FB playoffs and smaller dance.

IMHO, State should consider a move to MWC should an invite come their way. That would position us for the potential changes I see coming to D1.

[jbjack]

I agree. The PAC will not be able to recover P5 status. The PAC has already selected the cream of the MWC and may hold off on selecting additional candidates until the smoke clears a bit and the new members can input. It may also reduce the cost of buyouts. I don't see the PAC going after any FCS programs. The MWC will try to backfill from other G5 conferences and would only go down to FCS if they cannot. Either way the MWC will be weakened.

I think this will take a few more years to play out. There are other issues that may change the landscape; the NIL lawsuit payout mechanism, finalizing NCAA rules on paying players, the status of SEC and Big10 in the NCAA are big ones. I predict a split between the P4 and G5. The money that would be unlocked for the P4 is just too large to ignore. I think that split will include FB and BB programs. I see G5 with their own FB playoffs and smaller dance.

IMHO, State should consider a move to MWC should an invite come their way. That would position us for the potential changes I see coming to D1.

There's no way the PAC regains P4/5 status with the current makeup or any of the hoped for additions from the AAC or C-USA. Even if - and I don't think for a minute this would happen - Cal and Stanford would come back into the fold, there's is just too little interest in the PAC to generate the kind of revenue necessary to get an invite to the adult table.

Most recent speculation is that Air Force will leave for the AAC. This was apparently in the works prior to the departure of the PAC4.

The PAC is apparently meeting this week and strong speculation is that Tulane and Memphis will be invited to the PAC. Is it a done deal? Is a network brokering these movements with a specific dollar figure being waived at potential schools? The Seattle Times is estimating, from industry sources, that the PAC can expect at most $10,000,000 per school in a media deal. The PAC also has some money to entice schools with. What does the money look like for new schools? If its close, why does Tulane and Memphis want to play in the Mountain and Pacific time zones?

Finally, UNLV is an obvious candidate for the PAC, but apparently, Nevada and UNLV are governed by the same board and the train of thought is that the PAC doesn't want them both and the board won't let UNLV abandon Nevada.

Where does that leave us? I can appreciate the sentiment that it might be better to be G5 FBS if and when the P4 breaks off, rather than on the outside looking in. We don't want to end up in the third tier. We belong in the second tier of CFB. But we also run on a pretty tight margin. Is there a financial incentive to join the MWC? The MWC media deal is up in '26 and currently pays $6 million per school. That amount will not go up and almost certainly will decrease, if there even is a new media deal for the carcass of the MWC. Who's going to give much value to Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, San Jose, Utah State, Montana State, Montona, NDSU and SDSU? I don't think a $2 million or even $3 million per year media deal covers that added costs of a new conference. If we were to accept an invite without financial reward, we'd either soon find ourselves in a very difficult financial position (think UCLA) and/or be cutting programs. Would the regents allow a move that didn't pencil out? I don't think so.

The MWC will have a nice war chest with which it could incentivize schools to join, but if I'm a MWC school, and there's limited prospect for a new media deal, I'm beating down the door to the Sun Belt, AAC and C-USA for membership and splitting the spoils of the exist fees and penalties rather than trying to retrench.

There's also been some scuttlebutt that the P4 is pressuring the G5 conferences not to dilute the pot further by inviting FCS schools. I'm not sure why a G5 conference would pay any heed to the P4 other than the fact that at this point in time, the G5 gets to participate in the highest level of CFB at the pleasure of the P4.