Covid-19 and College Athletics

[filbert]

Your statement about the fatality rate of Covid-19 vs influenza may be true, but is it relevant? With influenza we have a vaccine which protects many against the disease and may limit its severity for others. The vaccine is mandatory for many of us because of where we work. It protects me in two major ways. It affords me the probability of some genuine immunity. It isn't perfect. I have been vaccinated every year since the mid to late 1980s, but have been diagnosed with influenza twice. The second major way it protects me is by decreasing the number of influenza positive people with whom I share the same air, decreasing my exposure. The same is not true for Covid-19. We have no vaccine e to protect us.

Just today there is an item in the news about a 30 year old man in San Antonio who went to a Covid party. As he lay in the hospital, seriously ill from the disease, he said to his nurse, "I think I made a mistake. I thought it was a hoax, but it's not." He died a short time later. This was reported on Fox News.

If the powers that control sporting events, school attendance, and other events see their gatherings as potential Covid parties, i think we will see cacellations.

How long will it last? To steal an answer from somewhere on the internet. Don't ask me. I'm a health care professional and a scientist, not a politician!

Yes, it's relevant. Much more relevant than the currently emphasized "cases" which is overly dependent on the number of tests being performed.

Influenza, even with a reasonably effective vaccine, kills from 30,000 to 60,000 people in the US every year. Add, probably, at least an order of magnitude to those totals if we did not have a vaccine.

There is zero guarantee we will EVER have an effective and widely available vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Yes, there is an enormous amount of research currently going on, but (from Wikipedia) "There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections. Treatment is only supportive."

If public policy is being made on the assumption that a vaccine will soon be available at all, let alone widely available, then it is bad public policy. Period.

Long term, and even with a vaccine, the target is and always has been "herd immunity," where a sufficient number of people have an immunity to the virus to prevent any significant spread. I've seen estimates all over the map regarding what percentage of the population needs to have immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in order to provide herd immunity. Some say we've already achieved it. Others say the number is something like 60%. Nobody really knows.

Recall that the purpose of all the shutdowns in the first place was to "lower the curve" in order to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed by serious CoVID-19 cases. This has been achieved.

The head of the CDC has recently said that schools should be reopened: “It’s a critical public health initiative right now to get these schools reopened and to do it safely,”

College athletes are as a group probably about the least at-risk group there is, a combination of particularly healthy and young. Does this mean that some of them won't come down with CoVID-19? No.

And I think that a Covid party is a particularly stupid idea. Personally, I am in an at-risk group. I limit my exposure by limiting my trips out of the house and when I do, I'm pretty diligent about maintaning social distance. I have not seen conclusive evidence that masks--at least the basic nose- and mouth-coverings that most people wear, do very much good at all and I've seen some studies that seem to indicate that the opposite may in fact be true. I don't know if those studies have been, or will ever be replicated, so the question is IMHO still open. I'll wear masks where people want me to, however (and avoid those same people as much as is possible.)

[bigticket1]

Your statement about the fatality rate of Covid-19 vs influenza may be true, but is it relevant? With influenza we have a vaccine which protects many against the disease and may limit its severity for others. The vaccine is mandatory for many of us because of where we work. It protects me in two major ways. It affords me the probability of some genuine immunity. It isn't perfect. I have been vaccinated every year since the mid to late 1980s, but have been diagnosed with influenza twice. The second major way it protects me is by decreasing the number of influenza positive people with whom I share the same air, decreasing my exposure. The same is not true for Covid-19. We have no vaccine e to protect us.

Just today there is an item in the news about a 30 year old man in San Antonio who went to a Covid party. As he lay in the hospital, seriously ill from the disease, he said to his nurse, "I think I made a mistake. I thought it was a hoax, but it's not." He died a short time later. This was reported on Fox News.

If the powers that control sporting events, school attendance, and other events see their gatherings as potential Covid parties, i think we will see cacellations.

How long will it last? To steal an answer from somewhere on the internet. Don't ask me. I'm a health care professional and a scientist, not a politician!

Young people may show few if any symptoms, but that doesn't mean that there won't be longer term affects. I heard a doctor say in an interview that when young people that weren't sick are given x-rays, that there is often lung damage found.

[West-River_Jack]

The fatality rate for COVID-19 in the age group of college students/athletes is not much different than the fatality rate of the same age group for influenza.



These decisions are being driven by panic and by PR concerns.

Your statement about the fatality rate of Covid-19 vs influenza may be true, but is it relevant? With influenza we have a vaccine which protects many against the disease and may limit its severity for others. The vaccine is mandatory for many of us because of where we work. It protects me in two major ways. It affords me the probability of some genuine immunity. It isn't perfect. I have been vaccinated every year since the mid to late 1980s, but have been diagnosed with influenza twice. The second major way it protects me is by decreasing the number of influenza positive people with whom I share the same air, decreasing my exposure. The same is not true for Covid-19. We have no vaccine e to protect us.

Just today there is an item in the news about a 30 year old man in San Antonio who went to a Covid party. As he lay in the hospital, seriously ill from the disease, he said to his nurse, "I think I made a mistake. I thought it was a hoax, but it's not." He died a short time later. This was reported on Fox News.

If the powers that control sporting events, school attendance, and other events see their gatherings as potential Covid parties, i think we will see cacellations.

How long will it last? To steal an answer from somewhere on the internet. Don't ask me. I'm a health care professional and a scientist, not a politician!

[jakejc795]

With no big TV contracts, FCS schools are in kind of a Catch-22 type situation. If you don't play, you have no income, but expenses are greatly reduced. If you play before limited or no crowds, your income is greatly reduced, but you basically have all your expenses plus the added costs of testing. Hard to predict which scenario would be tougher on the budget. Especially with no extra income from the Nebraska game.

The first interview mentioned broadcast implications and the contract with ESPN with opportunity for increased advertising on that platform.

[filbert]

I just typed in a fairly long essay that upon reflection is bouncing along the "politics' borderline. So I'll pass.

"Question authority." (ancient truism)

"Everything You Know Is Wrong!" (Firesign Theater--don't eat the blue moss!)

[bigticket1]

Interesting to compare how Patty Viverito's tone has evolved from late June through yesterday. She specifically mentioned yesterday having less optimism than two weeks ago.

She has been consistent in mentioning a "national testing standard," particularly once the season were to begin. Of course, costs associated with such a standard generally follow [with her again consistently estimating aggregate costs exceeding $300-400k (given current testing regimens, with hopes that adaptation can result in less expensive protocols)]

With no big TV contracts, FCS schools are in kind of a Catch-22 type situation. If you don't play, you have no income, but expenses are greatly reduced. If you play before limited or no crowds, your income is greatly reduced, but you basically have all your expenses plus the added costs of testing. Hard to predict which scenario would be tougher on the budget. Especially with no extra income from the Nebraska game.

[jakejc795]

Just saw a tweet from Jeff Goodman, a national college basketball analyst, who was told by a mid-major coach that his administration informed him that his team would not be allowed to do any airplane travel during the upcoming season.

Interesting to compare how Patty Viverito's tone has evolved from late June through yesterday. She specifically mentioned yesterday having less optimism than two weeks ago.

She has been consistent in mentioning a "national testing standard," particularly once the season were to begin. Of course, costs associated with such a standard generally follow [with her again consistently estimating aggregate costs exceeding $300-400k (given current testing regimens, with hopes that adaptation can result in less expensive protocols)]

[bigticket1]

Just saw a tweet from Jeff Goodman, a national college basketball analyst, who was told by a mid-major coach that his administration informed him that his team would not be allowed to do any airplane travel during the upcoming season.

[jakejc795]

The fatality rate for COVID-19 in the age group of college students/athletes is not much different than the fatality rate of the same age group for influenza.



These decisions are being driven by panic and by PR concerns.

Sure, one could limit the comparison to mortality rates, but that ignores integral factors, such as considerable difference in transmissibility (particularly propensity for superspreading events).

Setting aside the "panic" you mention, there are ethical complications ranging from access to tests to implications of thousands of fans commuting to and from games amid a pandemic (assuming fans can attend), but even at the most basic level, Covid has a greater potential to skew competitive balance given aforementioned risk of infection, notwithstanding any fatalities.

I want to see the Jacks in person this season, but I guarantee folks in Brookings and elsewhere aren't limiting their consideration of this to COVID mortality rates, and one could argue that if the standard for liability protections mentioned in the InsideHigherEd article is "reasonable practices," then constraining examination to fatalities would represent an unreasonable limitation.

[filbert]

The fatality rate for COVID-19 in the age group of college students/athletes is not much different than the fatality rate of the same age group for influenza.



These decisions are being driven by panic and by PR concerns.

[jakejc795]

We do have some real concerns. Nothing reported at SDSU that I have heard.

Unless things have changed, the Jacks aren't testing, according to Justin Sell.

[Southeast]

The last few days feels like a slow motion version of the three days after the Summit League Basketball tournament. The announcements just kept coming. I'm guessing soon the football discussion will soon shift from "will there be a season?" to "which seniors or early draft guys are going to stick around for 2021?". Some interesting questions there - especially for guys like Cade Johnson.

[GopherHole]

I forgot to mention that some future Jackrabbits will be playing.

LB - Caleb Francl, Grand Island
CB - Dalys Beanum, Millard West
CB - Abe Hoskins III, Omaha Central

Omaha World Herald had reported that 22 players chose not to participate to prepare for their college careers. I suspect that's why the following chose not to participate.

WR/CB - Isaac Appleget, Lincoln SE
WR/S - Nate Sullivan Jr., Bellevue West
TE - Wyatt Seagren, Oakland

[GopherHole]

It's not collegiate, but Nebraska is having their Shrine Bowl football game this Saturday. There's been plenty of discussion in the Husker state that this will be a litmus test for high school sports, like football this fall. While they've done some adjustments to try to protect the players, social distancing is in the eye of the beholder. The two rosters are made up of 90 players and this is believed to be the first organized football game to be held in the US since the pandemic broke out. They've been doing daily temperature checks, including before players arrived in Kearney.

Mark Macke, coach of the North team touched on the efforts to keep the players safe.

“We’re doing the best we can. We’re trying to keep our masks on as much as possible, especially when we’re indoors,” Macke said. “Trying to do as much social distancing as we can inside but you know when you’re out on the football field. You cross the line it ends there.” (KSNB News - Hastings, NE)

They are allowing fans at the game, but are limiting attendance to 75% of capacity. It's a nice DII football facility with regular seating capacity of 5,250 people. I've been at the event before and based on previous attendance they won't be turning fans away. They've taped off some of the seats to keep spacing between fans. Not sure how they're doing that as they are all bleacher seats. I haven't decided if I'm going to the game or not.

It will be interesting to see in a couple of weeks to see if there are any reported Covid cases attributed from this event. I'm not sure how they're handling the players visits with kids in Shriner hospitals. They've done that in the past, but I don't see how they're allowed into a hospital environment.

[Nidaros]

Yeah, good points not looking good for sports this fall. Any testing results on SDSU student-athletes yet?

We do have some real concerns. Nothing reported at SDSU that I have heard.