Covid-19 and College Athletics

[jakejc795]

IMO if we are going to wait for 0% positive tests or a reliable tested vaccine we can just cancel everything for possibly years to come. Serious question here....are all positive tests necessarily a bad thing? The way to beat a virus is to build immunity to it so it can't be spread. It seems to me we are picking certain groups to test very often while the rest of the population is ignored. Why isn't every large business or corperation testing its employees daily? I'm sure many have a different opinion which I respect but. One thing for sure is I would not want to be the guy in charge of trying to keep a bunch of college age kids (or many adults) quarantined in a bubble for very long. Good luck with that.

Those (vaccine vs no vaccine and some positives vs no positive) are false binaries, as an alternative that is less frequently discussed, but probably more feasible, is more robust testing and tracing to expeditiously isolate positive cases and their close contacts

[Justwin]

IMO if we are going to wait for 0% positive tests or a reliable tested vaccine we can just cancel everything for possibly years to come. Serious question here....are all positive tests necessarily a bad thing? The way to beat a virus is to build immunity to it so it can't be spread. It seems to me we are picking certain groups to test very often while the rest of the population is ignored. Why isn't every large business or corperation testing its employees daily? I'm sure many have a different opinion which I respect but. One thing for sure is I would not want to be the guy in charge of trying to keep a bunch of college age kids (or many adults) quarantined in a bubble for very long. Good luck with that.

[bigticket1]

Dick Bremer mentioned during recent Twins game that the Marlins players' cases purportedly stemmed from at least some players choosing to go to a nightclub, so your point regarding a "bubble" is pertinent here in that CFB's bubble would need to protect players, staff, etc. from anyone who could potentially frequent such locations and/or anyone choosing not to abide by medical professionals' guidelines

The tenor of your post seems to appreciate the near impossibility of this, and for those arguing we should "just play the games," it minimizes how a situation like the Sycamores could affect multiple teams. If we consider that current testing lag could allow at least two days (generally closer to 3-5 at best) to elapse, then they could've had their opponent on Sat. affected, and they wouldn't have been able to play the next two scheduled games, had this happened during season. Then, any close "game" contacts from the hypothetical Sat. team could also potentially need to at least self isolate for 10-14 days, thereby affecting their next 1-2 games.

For those saying "well, the season hasn't started," we should also consider students haven't fully returned to campus, and classes haven't started, both of which are expected to lead in increased COVID incidence on campus and only disrupt things further.

The report that came out in the last few days about the summer camp in Georgia doesn't make me optimistic about the whole college environment. Approx. 500 campers and staff all tested negative within 14 days of the start of the camp. They ended up testing about 350, with 275 testing positive. Hopefully things won't blow up to that extent, but dorms, classrooms and dining centers certainly are similiar situations.

[jakejc795]

Not sure if this is a serious question, but the reason should be obvious. If you have positive tests from players on the team there are likely others that are asymptomatic and haven't tested positive yet and are carrying the virus. Because of an erratic incubation period with this particular virus you can seem perfectly fine but still transmit it. A perfect case in point is the Miami Marlins. 18 players tested positive and this if from a "non-contact" sport.

Unless teams are restricted to a bubble we won't be seeing football this fall I'm afraid.

Dick Bremer mentioned during recent Twins game that the Marlins players' cases purportedly stemmed from at least some players choosing to go to a nightclub, so your point regarding a "bubble" is pertinent here in that CFB's bubble would need to protect players, staff, etc. from anyone who could potentially frequent such locations and/or anyone choosing not to abide by medical professionals' guidelines

The tenor of your post seems to appreciate the near impossibility of this, and for those arguing we should "just play the games," it minimizes how a situation like the Sycamores could affect multiple teams. If we consider that current testing lag could allow at least two days (generally closer to 3-5 at best) to elapse, then they could've had their opponent on Sat. affected, and they wouldn't have been able to play the next two scheduled games, had this happened during season. Then, any close "game" contacts from the hypothetical Sat. team could also potentially need to at least self isolate for 10-14 days, thereby affecting their next 1-2 games.

For those saying "well, the season hasn't started," we should also consider students haven't fully returned to campus, and classes haven't started, both of which are expected to lead to increased COVID incidence on campus and only disrupt things further.

[MontanaRabbit]

Explain to me if all football players,coaches and support personel are going to be in quarantine for 14 days what is the difference if they practice during that time?

Not sure if this is a serious question, but the reason should be obvious. If you have positive tests from players on the team there are likely others that are asymptomatic and haven't tested positive yet and are carrying the virus. Because of an erratic incubation period with this particular virus you can seem perfectly fine but still transmit it. A perfect case in point is the Miami Marlins. 18 players tested positive and this if from a "non-contact" sport.

Unless teams are restricted to a bubble we won't be seeing football this fall I'm afraid.

[jakejc795]

Explain to me if all football players,coaches and support personel are going to be in quarantine for 14 days what is the difference if they practice during that time?

One of the factors that's minimized during such debates is transmissibility, and the window during which individuals "shed" the virus. For instance, you might have six players whose "window" of transmissibility varies by a few days. Your question seems to imply they were all infected and will recover nearly simultaneously, but no report I have seen specified details when they were infected.

A guy could recover, but prior to that (or prior to testing positive, of course), he could infect a teammate who might never exhibit symptoms himself, but who also eventually tests postive; unfortunately, in the interim, he's also potentially infected additional people.

Plus, the report is that the "football players affected," (seemingly those who'd been "in close contact" with the six COVID-positive players) were quarantined, not the entire team and staff, so they could be back to square one even after the six players clear quarantine if a "non-affected" player and/or staff is exposed while practices/team activities are suspended.

Scenarios 3 and 4 here provide examples germane to this discussion.

[Justwin]

Indiana State becomes reportedly the third Valley school to suspend football activities due to positive COVID tests

Explain to me if all football players,coaches and support personel are going to be in quarantine for 14 days what is the difference if they practice during that time?

[jakejc795]

Indiana State becomes reportedly the third Valley school to suspend football activities due to positive COVID tests

[filbert]

Lmao holy ****

May I help you?

[jakejc795]

Guess the Butler data need no longer be a primary concern with that game being canceled.

[RabbitObsessed]

Edits.

[jakejc795]

Interesting data and visualizations, including FCS schools available here.

A couple potentially pertinent items -- Dr. Jedlicka is using data for towns/cities where universities are located, not team-specific test results (per notes here). Also, he apparently upgraded the Jacks from a C to a B earlier today, so they're essentially clustered with Bison, Panthers, 'Necks, and 'Yotes among MVFC teams. You can find those report cards on page 3 with Pioneer League rankings on pg. 4, if you're interested in Butler.

Butler's data are idiosyncratic in that it combines Indianapolis, Carmel, and Muncie, so it would be interesting to determine whether increased hospital and testing capacity may mask eventual underlying university-level trends even more than data like Jacks'.

[filbert]

State of Missouri is going to start offering virus tests without charge (if recommended by a physician).

[bigticket1]

Sounds like basketball season may not be normal, when (if) it happens. National JUCO is voting on a proposal this week. Practice would start on January 11th with games starting on the 22nd. 22 game maximum. National championships to start on April 19th.

[Nidaros]

Yes, it's relevant. Much more relevant than the currently emphasized "cases" which is overly dependent on the number of tests being performed.

Influenza, even with a reasonably effective vaccine, kills from 30,000 to 60,000 people in the US every year. Add, probably, at least an order of magnitude to those totals if we did not have a vaccine.

There is zero guarantee we will EVER have an effective and widely available vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Yes, there is an enormous amount of research currently going on, but (from Wikipedia) "There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections. Treatment is only supportive."

If public policy is being made on the assumption that a vaccine will soon be available at all, let alone widely available, then it is bad public policy. Period.

Long term, and even with a vaccine, the target is and always has been "herd immunity," where a sufficient number of people have an immunity to the virus to prevent any significant spread. I've seen estimates all over the map regarding what percentage of the population needs to have immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in order to provide herd immunity. Some say we've already achieved it. Others say the number is something like 60%. Nobody really knows.

Recall that the purpose of all the shutdowns in the first place was to "lower the curve" in order to prevent the health care system from being overwhelmed by serious CoVID-19 cases. This has been achieved.

The head of the CDC has recently said that schools should be reopened: “It’s a critical public health initiative right now to get these schools reopened and to do it safely,”

College athletes are as a group probably about the least at-risk group there is, a combination of particularly healthy and young. Does this mean that some of them won't come down with CoVID-19? No.

And I think that a Covid party is a particularly stupid idea. Personally, I am in an at-risk group. I limit my exposure by limiting my trips out of the house and when I do, I'm pretty diligent about maintaning social distance. I have not seen conclusive evidence that masks--at least the basic nose- and mouth-coverings that most people wear, do very much good at all and I've seen some studies that seem to indicate that the opposite may in fact be true. I don't know if those studies have been, or will ever be replicated, so the question is IMHO still open. I'll wear masks where people want me to, however (and avoid those same people as much as is possible.)

I have no reason to question the accuracy of your facts. They are not encouraging but very likely accurate. Going to a Covid party seems to a self inflected death wish without Charles Bronson pulling the trigger. If suicide is an option under consideration, this may be the way out. Not for me, I want to be around to see SDSU win a FCS National Championship. My big hope is a vaccine to cure COVID 19. It may happen and the person responsible for finding the vaccine will crowned Jonas Salk II.