2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

[slosho]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

How awesome would it be if we just came out and Blasted them with Tempo? Something we never do, so it would be unexpected. But then again we wouldn't do that so.

[thumper_76]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

How awesome would it be if we just came out and Blasted them with Tempo? Something we never do, so it would be unexpected. But then again we wouldn't do that so.

Realistically we usually do come out with something Marker week that seems to surprise the bison in some fashion. With our “new” offense sans Goedert and Jake I’ve got a good feeling we should be able to come up with something they weren’t expecting from us. Especially when you consider we haven’t had to open the playbook much in our two games. They haven’t had to open their playbook that much either however. Makes for an interesting thing to watch this game compared to when it’s at the end of the season, even if I do prefer this game in November.


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[THE PRIDE IS BACK!!!]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

How awesome would it be if we just came out and Blasted them with Tempo? Something we never do, so it would be unexpected. But then again we wouldn't do that so.

You never know. The coaching staff seems to always get the Jacks to do something new against the bison, especially in Fargo.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

While the Jacks had a good day on the field today, we didn't get much help around the country.

UC Davis (#6 Stats) was down 21-3 @ Montana, but came back to win 49-21.

JMU beat Stony Brook 13-10. Sbu missed the game tying field goal

Delaware did beat Towson today by 4, which will help SDSU.

Weber beat UND by 5 today in Grand Forks. That ahold knock UND out of seed possibility, but it also bolsters #4 WSU's record. We'll find out for ahouldure once the power poll is released this week, but I have a hard time seeing SDSU seeded above Weber if both win out.

Davis and EWU still have to play eachother, as do JMU and Towson. Both of those games could help move the Jacks up, depending on the outcome.

Additionally, in bad news for SDSU, Montana State is down 3 scores to Idaho State. If the score holds, the bobcats will be at 4 losses and need to win out to be on the playoff bubble. Jacks could really use that win as as resume booster if the bobcats make the field. We need ISUr and Montana State to win out, because I think that'll be the only playoff team wins we might possibly have this year with Missouri State's loss today.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Montana State held on against Cal Poly yesterday to stay in contention for one of the last teams in slot. Bobcats have UNC and @Montana left. I don't know that 7-4 will get thembin this year. An interesting side note: the general consensus is that if WIU wins out (7-4), they're in. But MSU at 7-4 with a victory over WIU is on the bubble? We need MSU to win out.

The CAA, Southland, and Socon are a mess right now, and likely won't be sorted out until late on November 17. The good news is that of those 3, I think only the CAA will get teams seeded. If Elon wins out, you might see them up to #3. But if they lose, I don't think we'll see a CAA team in the top 4, or maybe even top 6. CAA could still possibly get 3 teams seeded if the committee is kind to JMU, but I think that's pretty unlikely.

Davis @ EWU is this next Saturday in the national game of the week. If Davis wins out, they'll be #2 on selection Sunday. If EWU wins out, we'll have mess at the top out west (assuming weber wins out). Davis would have 1 conference loss, as would weber and EWU. Davis lost to EWU, who lost to Weber, who lost to NAU. I don't know how the tie breakers work in the Big Sky, but you would have 3 teams at 9-2, 9-1 vs FCS competition, that basically split with each other. I think you have to seed all three in that scenario. Likely all in the 4-7 range. Weber still has a very tough game against Idaho State left, which could be an upset in the making and help clear everything out at the top.

I don't know what the best case scenario for the Jacks is in all out that, but we need to:

1) Win our remaining games, and doing so convincingly would be nice.
2) Hope ISUR and Montana State win out and make the playoffs (or even have Indiana State make the field)
3) Hope every team in front of us loses to a team that isn't directly behind us.

I don't see a realistic path where we can get anything anything above a 4 seed without Weber, KSU, and Elon dropping a game. Possible, but it'll be tough. And there's nothing to say that a 9-2 Delaware or 9-2 EWU won't jump us either. They both will have better resumes than us at that point imo.

[thumper_76]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

I don't see a realistic path where we can get anything anything above a 4 seed without Weber, KSU, and Elon dropping a game. Possible, but it'll be tough. And there's nothing to say that a 9-2 Delaware or 9-2 EWU won't jump us either. They both will have better resumes than us at that point imo.

Maybe EWU, but in no way does UD have a better resume than us. They just scraped by a 2 win Albany team and got absolutely blown up in Fargo for a comparative game, while their good wins are taking some bad losses now. If UD were to jump us I would be furious.


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[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Maybe EWU, but in no way does UD have a better resume than us. They just scraped by a 2 win Albany team and got absolutely blown up in Fargo for a comparative game, while their good wins are taking some bad losses now. If UD were to jump us I would be furious.


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It doesn't matter now that they lost to Stony Brook yesterday, but their wins against Elon and Towson are better than any win we have this season. One of them will be in the playoffs for sure, and probably both. They have some unimpressive wins, but they have a couple of top 15-20 wins too. Like I said, it doesn't matter now, but had they won out and ended up 9-2, I believe their resume would have been better, despite their margin of loss in Fargo.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Since we're getting down to Selection Sunday, I thought it would be fun to take a look at potential playoff pairings and match ups. Obviously, the Jacks need to take care of business on Saturday, but should they make it in as a seed, we probably have a halfway decent idea of the match ups that might get fed into Brookings on December 1st.

I'll list out what I think might be the seeds, but in no particular order. A lot could change next week. I also think seeding really depends on what they committee does with Davis after their loss yesterday. Will they seed 3 Big Sky teams at 9-2 each if they all win out? Who (if anyone) will get a seed out of the CAA? Maine will win the outright conference title if they win on Saturday, but there are other CAA teams ranked ahead of them in most most polls. JMU is maybe in the best position based on polls, but they have the weakest strength of schedule out of all of the teams in contention for the conference championship.

So, here's a guess:

NDSU
SDSU
EWU
Weber
Colgate
JSU/KSU winner
Maine
Davis


Possible pairings based on Geography:

If UND makes the field, it's a virtual lock that they'll be fed into either Fargo or Brookings. I think they're the only team left on the bubble that is within bus distance of either NDSu or SDSU, so if they make it, I would be shocked if they ended up fed into Weber/Eastern/etc.

If UND doesn't make it, I think we could see just about anyone in the second round. WIU, if they make it (which is highly unlikely) is 550 miles from Brookings, and is out of bus range. With that being said, they are also going to be a ways out of bus range for all other options too, so they might get sent to Brookings if they sneak in.

The CAA teams are probably going to pair up in the first round if they didn't play in the regular season, and certainly in the second round if they did. Most likely, that means we might see something like this:

Delaware @ JMU in round 1 since they didn't play this year - winner to Weber
Duquesne @ Towson with the winner on to Colgate
Monmouth @ Stony Brook with the winner to Maine
NC A&T @ Elon with the winner to Fargo (no particular reason why, but there aren't going to be enough seeded teams in the South or East to feed into)
San Diego @ Montana State with the winner to Davis
Wofford @ JSU/KSU loser with the winner onto JSU/KSU winner
Nicholls @ UND with winner to Brookings
SEMO @ ETSU with the winner to EWU


Just typing that out, I don;t think there's any way the Big Sky will get 3 teams seeded, based simply on geography. There would be 5 teams west of the Mississippi seeded, increasing first round and second round flights a lot. I think it might be more likely to see a second 8-3 CAA team seeded, and maybe even a 9-2 ETSU. Looking at the geography, I wonder if they will give Colgate a seed and leave Maine out of the seeds to create a busable second round match up between Stony Brook, Maine, and Colgate.

The committee shouldn't weigh things like bus trips into who is seeded, but I won't be surprised if there's a surprise team in the middle Atlantic or southeast seeded to create more local match ups out there. The other crappy thing is that if 3 Big Sky teams don't get seeded, SDSU or NDSU might see a 9-2 co-champion Weber/Davis/EWU in the second round, which would be a bad draw. If UND doesn't make it, I'd imagine we will see some form of Montana State/Non-seeded big sky champion/Southland team here in round 2.

With all of that being said, the committee sent Monmouth (out of New Jersey) to Cedar Falls in round 1 last year, so maybe geography matters less to them than we tend to believe. But it definitely doesn't seem that way. I'm hopeful that we get to see a team in Brookings we haven't played before in the second (or first) round. I thoroughly enjoyed the UNH game last year. It's what makes the playoffs fun.

[Sodakbull]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Since we're getting down to Selection Sunday, I thought it would be fun to take a look at potential playoff pairings and match ups. Obviously, the Jacks need to take care of business on Saturday, but should they make it in as a seed, we probably have a halfway decent idea of the match ups that might get fed into Brookings on December 1st.

I'll list out what I think might be the seeds, but in no particular order. A lot could change next week. I also think seeding really depends on what they committee does with Davis after their loss yesterday. Will they seed 3 Big Sky teams at 9-2 each if they all win out? Who (if anyone) will get a seed out of the CAA? Maine will win the outright conference title if they win on Saturday, but there are other CAA teams ranked ahead of them in most most polls. JMU is maybe in the best position based on polls, but they have the weakest strength of schedule out of all of the teams in contention for the conference championship.

So, here's a guess:

NDSU
SDSU
EWU
Weber
Colgate
JSU/KSU winner
Maine
Davis


Possible pairings based on Geography:

If UND makes the field, it's a virtual lock that they'll be fed into either Fargo or Brookings. I think they're the only team left on the bubble that is within bus distance of either NDSu or SDSU, so if they make it, I would be shocked if they ended up fed into Weber/Eastern/etc.

If UND doesn't make it, I think we could see just about anyone in the second round. WIU, if they make it (which is highly unlikely) is 550 miles from Brookings, and is out of bus range. With that being said, they are also going to be a ways out of bus range for all other options too, so they might get sent to Brookings if they sneak in.

The CAA teams are probably going to pair up in the first round if they didn't play in the regular season, and certainly in the second round if they did. Most likely, that means we might see something like this:

Delaware @ JMU in round 1 since they didn't play this year - winner to Weber
Duquesne @ Towson with the winner on to Colgate
Monmouth @ Stony Brook with the winner to Maine
NC A&T @ Elon with the winner to Fargo (no particular reason why, but there aren't going to be enough seeded teams in the South or East to feed into)
San Diego @ Montana State with the winner to Davis
Wofford @ JSU/KSU loser with the winner onto JSU/KSU winner
Nicholls @ UND with winner to Brookings
SEMO @ ETSU with the winner to EWU


Just typing that out, I don;t think there's any way the Big Sky will get 3 teams seeded, based simply on geography. There would be 5 teams west of the Mississippi seeded, increasing first round and second round flights a lot. I think it might be more likely to see a second 8-3 CAA team seeded, and maybe even a 9-2 ETSU. Looking at the geography, I wonder if they will give Colgate a seed and leave Maine out of the seeds to create a busable second round match up between Stony Brook, Maine, and Colgate.

The committee shouldn't weigh things like bus trips into who is seeded, but I won't be surprised if there's a surprise team in the middle Atlantic or southeast seeded to create more local match ups out there. The other crappy thing is that if 3 Big Sky teams don't get seeded, SDSU or NDSU might see a 9-2 co-champion Weber/Davis/EWU in the second round, which would be a bad draw. If UND doesn't make it, I'd imagine we will see some form of Montana State/Non-seeded big sky champion/Southland team here in round 2.

With all of that being said, the committee sent Monmouth (out of New Jersey) to Cedar Falls in round 1 last year, so maybe geography matters less to them than we tend to believe. But it definitely doesn't seem that way. I'm hopeful that we get to see a team in Brookings we haven't played before in the second (or first) round. I thoroughly enjoyed the UNH game last year. It's what makes the playoffs fun.

Your matchups are are probably as good as anybody's. I just can't figure out all the love that Kennessaw State is getting with by far the weakest schedule of anyone in the top 25 and no wins against a top 25 team. They don't deserve a top 5 seed for sure.

[Nidaros]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Your matchups are are probably as good as anybody's. I just can't figure out all the love that Kennessaw State is getting with by far the weakest schedule of anyone in the top 25 and no wins against a top 25 team. They don't deserve a top 5 seed for sure.

Maybe they are adding in the weight of Newt Ginrich, former faculty at Kennessaw, a pun intended. Seriously though, Kennassaw has found ways to win. Strength of Schedule? I do not know what that means, if anything. They have only one loss I believe and you can not ignore that. Why then is not more weight given to Colgate and Princeton? undefeated I believe but Ivy League football does not seem to be what it once was, a big deal.

[Sodakbull]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Maybe they are adding in the weight of Newt Ginrich, former faculty at Kennessaw, a pun intended. Seriously though, Kennassaw has found ways to win. Strength of Schedule? I do not know what that means, if anything. They have only one loss I believe and you can not ignore that. Why then is not more weight given to Colgate and Princeton? undefeated I believe but Ivy League football does not seem to be what it once was, a big deal.

I agree they have beat every one on the schedule outside of Georgia State and that is all they can do, but they only have two wins against teams with winning records, one of which is 6-4 Campbell and another is 7-3 Monmoth and they beat them soundly, but neither is even in the running for a playoff spot. I just don't feel that they should be hosting a semi final playoff as a top 4 seed as it would reward teams with softer scheduling. I know some people are criticizing SDSU for not having a signature win, and I cant argue with that but putting Kennesaw State above us defeats that argument. In other words, what would their record be with playing, NDSU, Indiana St, UNI and Ill St, back to back to back and playing 3 of them on the road? Colgate is in the same boat for me.

[thumper_76]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

The more I think about it the more convince I become that the committee would get their wet dream and put us at the 8 seed if Colgate knocks off Army. I could see them keeping JMU above us because of the last two years and the name JMU, EWU above is for their W against UC Davis, UC Davis over is because of their FBS win, NDSU at 1, Kennesaw because everyone has a hard on for them, Colgate because undefeated and FBS win (hypothetically), and Weber because of shines record and a good win. Then they get to send us to Fargo in the quarters so we can end the reign of terror, and bus trip. Prepare yourselves.


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[OldHare]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Zimmer tweeted that Houston has met with JMU team to let them know that he is headed to ECU.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Zimmer tweeted that Houston has met with JMU team to let them know that he is headed to ECU.

Thank God he signed that 10 year contract with the Dukes first though...

Seriously, that whole situation was a mess. If I didn't take so much joy out of the shock, disbelief, and embarrassment coming out of Harrisonburg, I'd almost feel sorry for Duke fans.

The nation was pretty quick to crown them "the other" premier program after their 2016 run, and I always felt that was a knee jerk reaction. In reality, their 2016-2018 run is very similar to Illinois State's 2014-2016 run. The key difference being the hardware that the dukes got in 16. But the Redbirds never received the same type of "annointed" status that JMU has had for the past 3 years. JMU was a pretty damn average football team for the majority of this decade. In 2015, they still had bridge forth stadium, a great fanbase, and a solid history. And then they lost at home to Colgate in the playoffs... But after 2016, it was like everyone fabricated a level of JMU dominance for the rest of the decade before 2016 that just simply wasn't there, and probably won't be there again* (fully acknowledging that they return ALOT next year). It seemed like the national media, Bison fans, CAA apologists, etc. just desperately wanted a team to challenge the Bison.

It'll be interesting to see how the Houston situation hurts the Dukes in 2019 and beyond.

[thumper_76]

Re: 2018 FCS National Updates and Story Lines

Thank God he signed that 10 year contract with the Dukes first though...

Seriously, that whole situation was a mess. If I didn't take so much joy out of the shock, disbelief, and embarrassment coming out of Harrisonburg, I'd almost feel sorry for Duke fans.

The nation was pretty quick to crown them "the other" premier program after their 2016 run, and I always felt that was a knee jerk reaction. In reality, their 2016-2018 run is very similar to Illinois State's 2014-2016 run. The key difference being the hardware that the dukes got in 16. But the Redbirds never received the same type of "annointed" status that JMU has had for the past 3 years. JMU was a pretty damn average football team for the majority of this decade. In 2015, they still had bridge forth stadium, a great fanbase, and a solid history. And then they lost at home to Colgate in the playoffs... But after 2016, it was like everyone fabricated a level of JMU dominance for the rest of the decade before 2016 that just simply wasn't there, and probably won't be there again* (fully acknowledging that they return ALOT next year). It seemed like the national media, Bison fans, CAA apologists, etc. just desperately wanted a team to challenge the Bison.

It'll be interesting to see how the Houston situation hurts the Dukes in 2019 and beyond.

YES! So much of this.


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