Playoffs

[tbcruiser]

I am starting to think that Montana State will be on the other side of the bracket regardless of how they do on Saturday. If they win, they will be a 2 or 3. If they lose they likely fall to 6 or 7, hopefully not to 8.

How about with a win Montana State moves to 2 and Montana goes to 4?
Furman to 3?
USD a 5

[bigticket1]

I do think that the Fury Cows and MSU both winning this week would make the Jacks path much more difficult. However it does feel wrong pulling for UNI and the Gizz

I am starting to think that Montana State will be on the other side of the bracket regardless of how they do on Saturday. If they win, they will be a 2 or 3. If they lose they likely fall to 6 or 7, hopefully not to 8.

[Jackwagon]

I do think that the Fury Cows and MSU both winning this week would make the Jacks path much more difficult. However it does feel wrong pulling for UNI and the Gizz

[bigticket1]

That bracket would be great for us.

I realize that the Committee votes and the vote is the way the seeds fall, but I have a hard time believing that they will put all 3 of the Big Sky teams on one side of the bracket.

[SteelSD]

Sam Herder's latest projection has Montana, Montana State, Idaho, and NDSU all on the opposite side of the bracket. I would like this very much as those are probably the only four teams I am even remotely scared of.

That bracket would be great for us.

[Jackrabbit2012]

Sam Herder's latest projection has Montana, Montana State, Idaho, and NDSU all on the opposite side of the bracket. I would like this very much as those are probably the only four teams I am even remotely scared of.

[Jackwagon]

I look at Furman as last years MSU. I also admit that I under value Furman. The East Coast bias compromise would be allowing Deleware and Albany in at #7 and #8 even if the Fury Cows win. The good news…we won’t have long to wait!

[SteelSD]

We know the Jacks are a #1 seed (barring a natural disaster)

My scenario puts the Grizz at #2 by winning the brawl. If they lose the Brawl I have JSD making the jump to #2 and the Cats taking the #3 spot. In other words the #2 and #3 are occupied by the Valley and Big Sky.

Furman is going to be slapped down to #4. The rest of the FCS world will go crazy. However, at the end of the day, I feel the committee still looks at matchups and this just makes the most sense to me. When you look at SOS and even style points…Furman has not earned that #2 spot. With their schedule, they should have blown out teams if they expected to be #2.

#5 is Idaho (besides the Jacks at #1, this is the seed I am most likely to bet the farm on) As I said earlier, the committee does look at matchups. Awarding Furman a chance at the third place in the Big Sky makes sense. If Furman loses like I think they will….Eck in Brookings seems pretty tasty.

#6 goes to the loser of the Brawl because it just is easy. This leads to another great match up in the semis with JSD likely.

#7 and #8 is between 5 teams…Delaware, Nova, Fury Cows, Sac St, Albany. It is obvious that the UNI vs Fury Cows game is huge. As much as I want to see the Fury Cows play Thanksgiving weekend, I would bet they pull one out. (I may even recommend sprinkling some money on that one in favor of the Cows, if they win, I have extra cash…if they lose, I would be happy to lose some money) With all that said, I am putting #7 as Deleware (assuming they beat Nova)

Finally at #8 I am sliding in Albany…just because it feels better.

Good analysis but I don't fully agree with this. You are under valuing Furman as there will be some East Coast bias in the selection committee. My guess would be they are the 2 seed if MSU wins the Brawl with MSU getting the 3 seed. If UM wins the Brawl then they are the 2 and Furman is the 3. I have USD as a 4 seed in either scenario.

As for the CAA grouping, if Delaware wins then likely a 7 seed is about right for them. If Nova wins though it would be hard to seed them higher than Albany since Albany won 31-10 early this year.

I think it's a tough sell to say there are 4 BSC teams worthy of seeds so I just don't see Sac St. quite getting there. Heck, a loss to UCD puts them squarely on the bubble themselves.

Speculation is fun, will be interesting to see how the last week plays out and see how the committee handles it.

[Jackwagon]

We know the Jacks are a #1 seed (barring a natural disaster)

My scenario puts the Grizz at #2 by winning the brawl. If they lose the Brawl I have JSD making the jump to #2 and the Cats taking the #3 spot. In other words the #2 and #3 are occupied by the Valley and Big Sky.

Furman is going to be slapped down to #4. The rest of the FCS world will go crazy. However, at the end of the day, I feel the committee still looks at matchups and this just makes the most sense to me. When you look at SOS and even style points…Furman has not earned that #2 spot. With their schedule, they should have blown out teams if they expected to be #2.

#5 is Idaho (besides the Jacks at #1, this is the seed I am most likely to bet the farm on) As I said earlier, the committee does look at matchups. Awarding Furman a chance at the third place in the Big Sky makes sense. If Furman loses like I think they will….Eck in Brookings seems pretty tasty.

#6 goes to the loser of the Brawl because it just is easy. This leads to another great match up in the semis with JSD likely.

#7 and #8 is between 5 teams…Delaware, Nova, Fury Cows, Sac St, Albany. It is obvious that the UNI vs Fury Cows game is huge. As much as I want to see the Fury Cows play Thanksgiving weekend, I would bet they pull one out. (I may even recommend sprinkling some money on that one in favor of the Cows, if they win, I have extra cash…if they lose, I would be happy to lose some money) With all that said, I am putting #7 as Deleware (assuming they beat Nova)

Finally at #8 I am sliding in Albany…just because it feels better.

[SlapJack]

Playoff picture: the MVFC playoff race is generating drama all the way to the final week this year.

ISU-b vs SIU (6-4) - Must win for SIU to be in the bubble.
YSU (6-4) vs Murray - Must win for YSU to be in the bubble.
ISU-r (6-4) vs UND (6-4) - Winner gets the bubble. Loser goes home.
NDSU (7-3) vs UNI (6-4) - Must win for UNI to be on the bubble. An NDSU win creates a playoff lock with an outside chance of a seed.

There's a chance that we end with 5 MVFC teams at 7-4. If that's the case, I don't think they all get in.

[jbjack]

I have to imagine that SDSU is the #1 seed even with an ugly win against MO St and maybe even with a loss but I doubt Coach is going to take any chances. It would be nice to be able to rest the starters after running the gauntlet, even if for a half. Guys are definitely starting to show some wear and tear. It's too bad the seed wasn't a lock and the starters could be rested NFL style. At the same time, who wants to share the conference title with JSD?

[JacksFan80]

Why do most guys have JSD on the outside of the top 4 seeds? Why no love for JSD? Hear my out here. I have a great distain for JSD, but objectively speaking, they have only lost to Missou and SDSU. Furman is the only team other than SDSU to have 0 FCS losses. After that, JSD's one FCS loss to SDSU looks better losing to NAU (MT), Idaho & SDSU (MT State), Weber & MT (Idaho).

I get there's strength of schedule, how compelling their victories are, and how blown out their losses were, but if I'm JSD, I'm making a hard case for top-4 seed.

Now after writings this, I need to take a shower, Disinfect, and Detox.

I do think USD should easily be anywhere from 3-5. The Missouri loss won't be held against them due to Missouri being genuinely one of the best teams in the country, but losing by 34 in your home stadium to SDSU will be held against them. For comparison Montana State has 2 FCS losses right now compared to USDs 1, but they were by a combined 7 points to SDSU and Idaho, if MSU beats Montana I expect them to pass USD in the seeds. Likewise I expect Montana to be seeded higher if they win, along with Furman.

[SlapJack]

Idaho and USD could very well end up as the 4 and 5 seeds.

Why do most guys have JSD on the outside of the top 4 seeds? Why no love for JSD? Hear my out here. I have a great distain for JSD, but objectively speaking, they have only lost to Missou and SDSU. Furman is the only team other than SDSU to have 0 FCS losses. After that, JSD's one FCS loss to SDSU looks better losing to NAU (MT), Idaho & SDSU (MT State), Weber & MT (Idaho).

I get there's strength of schedule, how compelling their victories are, and how blown out their losses were, but if I'm JSD, I'm making a hard case for top-4 seed.

Now after writings this, I need to take a shower, Disinfect, and Detox.

[jakejc795]

That would scramble seeds a bit. It does look like the Big Sky may have 4 teams with 8 wins. Could a UNI win mean only 2 MVFC teams with a seed and 4 Big Sky?

Guess I figured after today, the Valley should be lucky to have a handful of teams guaranteed (I figured Salukis, 'guins, and F'in' Hawks potentially in prayer mode/essentially done, with UNI's only hope defeating the Bison next week)

[jakejc795]

I'm also interested how far Montana State drops if they lose at Montana. Probably no lower than 6 or 7. The two Montana schools on the other side of the bracket would be fine with me.

Not going to lie -- I want whatever outcome feeds the Grizz to Brookings.

I want revenge for the ursine ruining of Thanksgiving Weekend '09.