Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2021 Fall, Polls and Sagarin Rankings

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2021 Fall, Polls and Sagarin Rankings

    From the Sagarin D-1 rankings as of Sept 6, 2021 (Week 1).
    I pulled out the top 25 FCS teams and also included the Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the top 25. SDSU is the highest rated FCS program, coming in at #62 in the full-D1 Sagarin Week 1 rankings. Of course, Sagarin’s rankings/predictions etc. can (and should) significantly improve in “accuracy” as more games are played. You’ll note there are some “top 25 FCS teams” who haven’t won a game yet. The season is early!!

    For the full Sagarin Week 1 rankings, go to:
    https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

    THE “TOP 25” FCS TEAMS IN THE WEEK 1 RATINGS:

    62 South Dakota State MVFC
    97 James Madison COLONIAL
    98 Montana BIG SKY
    99 North Dakota State MVFC
    106 Sam Houston State AQ7
    109 North Dakota MVFC
    110 Northern Iowa MVFC
    114 Southern Illinois MVFC
    119 Weber State BIG SKY
    123 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
    125 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
    126 Montana State BIG SKY
    127 UC Davis BIG SKY
    129 Missouri State MVFC
    130 Samford SOUTHERN
    131 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
    136 Villanova COLONIAL
    137 Delaware COLONIAL
    138 Illinois State MVFC
    142 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
    143 Sacramento State BIG SKY
    144 Furman SOUTHERN
    145 South Dakota MVFC
    147 Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
    148 Central Arkansas AQ7

    Here are the Week 1 rankings of the other Missouri Valley Football Conference teams:
    152 Youngstown State
    168 Western Illinois
    176 Indiana State


  • #2

    From the Sagarin D-1 rankings as of Sept 12, 2021 (Week 2).
    I pulled out the top 25 FCS teams and also included the Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the top 25. SDSU is the highest rated FCS program, coming in at #68 in the full-D1 Sagarin Week 2 rankings. There are 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS) covered in the ratings.

    For the full Sagarin Week 2 rankings, go to:
    https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

    THE “TOP 25” FCS TEAMS IN THE WEEK 2 RATINGS
    ​​​​​​

    68 South Dakota State MVC
    89 North Dakota State MVC
    92 Montana BIG SKY
    93 James Madison COLONIAL
    105 Sam Houston State AQ7
    106 Northern Iowa MVC
    110 Southern Illinois MVC
    112 Weber State BIG SKY
    117 UC Davis BIG SKY
    118 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
    120 Montana State BIG SKY
    121 North Dakota MVC
    122 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
    123 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
    126 Villanova COLONIAL
    130 Missouri State MVC
    134 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
    137 South Dakota MVC
    139 Jacksonville State AQ7
    141 Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
    142 Yale IVY LEAGUE
    143 Nicholls State SOUTHLAND
    145 Delaware COLONIAL
    146 Central Arkansas AQ7
    147 Illinois State MVC

    Here are the Week 2 rankings of the other Missouri Valley Football Conference teams:

    156 Youngstown State MVC
    176 Indiana State MVC
    180 Western Illinois MVC
    Last edited by JackJD; 09-19-2021, 03:48 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 3 Sagarin ratings (games through 9/18/21) as revised:

      Listed below are the top 25 FCS teams per Sagarin's ratings method along with Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the Sagarin FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks all 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS).. The number is the team's ranking among all 25 Division 1 teams

      Link to the USA Today - Jeff Sagarin ratings:
      https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/


      41 South Dakota State MVFC
      71 James Madison Colonial
      79 Montana Big Sky

      90 North Dakota State MVFC
      93
      Southern Illinois MVFC
      102 Northern Iowa MVFC
      105 Sam Houston State WAC
      112 Weber State Big Sky

      114 UC Davis BIG SKY
      115 E Tennessee State Southland
      116 SE Louisiana Southland
      117 Montana State
      Big Sky
      120 Harvard Ivy League
      121 North Dakota MVFC

      123 South Dakota MVFC
      124 Princeton Ivy League
      128 Missouri State MVFC
      129 Chattanooga Southern
      130 Eastern Washington
      Big Sky
      134 Kennesaw State Big South
      135 Austin Peay Ohio Valley
      137 Monmouth-NJ Big South
      138 Incarnate Word Southland
      140 Youngstown State MVFC
      141 Illinois State MVFC


      Here are the Week 3 rankings of the other Missouri Valley Football Conference teams,
      162 Indiana State MVFC
      176 Western Illinois MVFC
      Last edited by JackJD; 09-26-2021, 12:10 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 4 Sagarin ratings (games through 9/26/21):

        Listed below are the top 25 FCS teams per Sagarin's ratings method along with Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the Sagarin FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks all 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS).. The number is the team's ranking among all 25 Division 1 teams.

        Link to the USA Today - Jeff Sagarin ratings:
        https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

        45 South Dakota State MVC
        71 James Madison COLONIAL
        77 Montana BIG SKY
        80 North Dakota State MVC
        96 Sam Houston State AQ7
        97 Northern Iowa MVC
        100 Southern Illinois MVC

        106 UC Davis BIG SKY
        114 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
        116 Missouri State MVC
        117 Weber State BIG SKY
        119 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
        121 Montana State BIG SKY
        122 North Dakota MVC
        124 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
        126 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
        127 South Dakota MVC
        131 Villanova COLONIAL
        132 Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
        135 Harvard IVY LEAGUE
        136 Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
        137 Mercer SOUTHERN
        139 Delaware COLONIAL
        141 Chattanooga SOUTHERN
        145 Nicholls State SOUTHLAND


        Ranking of the four MVFC teams not in the top 25 FCS teams as ranked by Sagarin for week 4:
        151 Illinois State

        155 Youngstown State
        169 Indiana State
        172 Western Illinois

        Of the 86 D-I teams ranked below #172 Western Illinois in the USA Today - Sagarin rankings for Week 4, there are five D-I FBS schools.


        The Jacks host Dixie State in the Beef Bowl on Saturday, October 2. In the week 4 USA Today - Sagarin rankings, Dixie State is #228 out of 258.
        Last edited by JackJD; 11-01-2021, 09:41 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by JackJD View Post
          Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 34 Sagarin ratings (games through 9/26/21):

          Listed below are the top 25 FCS teams per Sagarin's ratings method along with Missouri Valley Football Conference teams who are not in the Sagarin FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks all 258 Division I teams (FBS and FCS).. The number is the team's ranking among all 25 Division 1 teams.

          Link to the USA Today - Jeff Sagarin ratings:
          https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/

          45 South Dakota State MVC
          71 James Madison COLONIAL
          77 Montana BIG SKY
          80 North Dakota State MVC
          96 Sam Houston State AQ7
          97 Northern Iowa MVC
          100 Southern Illinois MVC

          106 UC Davis BIG SKY
          114 Eastern Washington BIG SKY
          116 Missouri State MVC
          117 Weber State BIG SKY
          119 SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
          121 Montana State BIG SKY
          122 North Dakota MVC
          124 Princeton IVY LEAGUE
          126 East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
          127 South Dakota MVC
          131 Villanova COLONIAL
          132 Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
          135 Harvard IVY LEAGUE
          136 Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
          137 Mercer SOUTHERN
          139 Delaware COLONIAL
          141 Chattanooga SOUTHERN
          145 Nicholls State SOUTHLAND


          Ranking of the four MVFC teams not in the top 25 FCS teams as ranked by Sagarin for week 4:
          151 Illinois State

          155 Youngstown State
          169 Indiana State
          172 Western Illinois

          Of the 86 D-I teams ranked below #172 Western Illinois in the USA Today - Sagarin rankings for Week 4, there are five D-I FBS schools.


          The Jacks host Dixie State in the Beef Bowl on Saturday, October 2. In the week 4 USA Today - Sagarin rankings, Dixie State is #228 out of 258.
          If you go to the full rankings it is fun to see who we are ranked over:
          Arizona State
          BYU
          Stanford
          USC
          Nebraska
          Miami (the U)
          Tennessee
          Missouri
          Minnesota

          Comment


          • #6
            I've always viewed the Sagarin Rankings, and any other similar type of rankings (I know a lot of states have similar rankings for their High School sports) as the most accurate rankings out there. They take some real raw unbiased data and algorithm's to come up with the rankings, as opposed to biases, popular teams and traditionally good teams.

            Comment


            • #7
              I like to follow the Massy rankings comparison at, https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm. It take a composite of 30+ rankings, drops the high and low and then uses the mean ranking. Early in the season there is quite a bit of noise. After 5-6 games that smooths out and it becomes a good predictor. Right now it has SDSU at #2 with a mean of 2.95 and a median of 2. This ranking also includes a game predictor, just click on a team to go to predictor. Right now State is predicted to win out with closest games vs SIU, NDSU and USD (as I said after 5-6 games ...).
              You know that you're over the hill when your mind makes a promise that your body can't fill. - L. George

              Comment


              • #8
                I look at the Massy ratings, too. As a season grinds on, the computer-based systems like Massy and Sagarin, become more and more accurate. But the fun part about college ball, are the unexpected results and upsets which serve to justify the time-worn bromide “That’s why they play the game.”

                The Missouri Valley Football Conference has seven teams ranked in the top 25 FCS Sagarin rankings for week 4. The Big Sky has five. So, if one separates away the FBS schools, here are the FCS rankings for the top two FCS conferences based on number of teams ranked in the top 25, the MVFC and the Big Sky:

                MVFC (11 schools)
                1. SDSU
                4. NDSU
                6. UNI
                7. SIU
                10. MO State
                14. UND
                17. USD


                Big Sky (11 schools...Southern Utah U moves to the WAC in 2022)
                3. Montana
                8. UC-Davis
                9. Eastern Washington
                11. Weber

                13. Montana State
                Last edited by JackJD; 10-01-2021, 11:47 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 5 Sagarin ratings (games through October 2, 2021):

                  The first number is the rank among just FCS teams. The second number is the Sagarin rank for the team as determined among all 258 D1 teams. The MVFC teams not in the top 25 are listed below by their overall D-1 ranking projected by Sagarin.

                  The USA-Today/Sagarin site:
                  https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/




                  1 (49) South Dakota State MVFC
                  2 (73) North Dakota State MVFC
                  3 (76) James Madison CAA
                  4 (87) Montana Big Sky
                  5 (89) Northern Iowa MVFC
                  6 (94) Sam Houston State AQ7
                  7 (99) Eastern Washington BIG SKY
                  8 (105) Southern Illinois MVFC

                  9 (108) Missouri State MVFC
                  10 (113) UC Davis BIG SKY
                  11 (114) Montana State BIG SKY
                  12 (121) South Dakota MVFC

                  13 (122) Harvard Ivy League
                  14 (124) Weber State BIG SKY
                  15 (125) Princeton IVY LEAGUE
                  16 (128) SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
                  17 (130) North Dakota MVFC
                  18 (131) Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
                  19 (133) Villanova COLONIAL
                  20 (135) Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
                  21 (136) Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
                  22 (138) Central Arkansas AQ7
                  23 (139) East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
                  24 (140) Mercer SOUTHERN
                  25 (142) Stephen F. Austin AQ7

                  Sagarin rankings of the remaining MVFC teams:

                  152 Youngstown State MVFC
                  154 Western Illinois MVFC
                  158 Illinois State MVFC
                  180 Indiana State MVFC
                  Last edited by JackJD; 10-04-2021, 10:25 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10


                    Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 6 Sagarin computer ratings (games through October 9, 2021):


                    The first number is the rank among just FCS teams. The second number is the Sagarin rank for the team as determined among all 258 D1 teams. The MVFC teams not in the top 25 are listed below by their overall D-1 ranking computed by Sagarin.

                    The USA-Today/Sagarin site:
                    https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/


                    1 (54) South Dakota State MVFC
                    2 (64) North Dakota State MVFC
                    3 (92) James Madison COLONIAL
                    4 (94) Northern Iowa MVFC
                    5 (95) Southern Illinois MVFC
                    6 (98) Eastern Washington BIG SKY
                    7 (99) Montana BIG SKY
                    8 (102) Sam Houston State AQ7
                    9 (114) Montana State BIG SKY
                    10 (115) Villanova COLONIAL
                    11 (117) SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
                    12 (119) Missouri State MVFC
                    13 (121) South Dakota MVFC
                    14 (123) Princeton IVY LEAGUE
                    15 (124) Harvard IVY LEAGUE
                    16 (125) Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
                    17 (128) Weber State BIG SKY
                    18 (130) North Dakota MVFC
                    19 (132) UC Davis BIG SKY
                    20 (133) East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
                    21 (136) Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
                    22 (137) Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
                    23 (140) Youngstown State MVFC
                    24 (141) Mercer SOUTHERN
                    25 (145) Sacramento State BIG SKY


                    Sagarin rating of the remaining MVFC teams:

                    (168) Illinois State MVFC
                    (169) Western Illinois MVFC
                    (172) Indiana State MVFC

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Adding to this thread the Stats and NCAA Coaches Polls for FCS football..The polls are the collected opinions of the individuals voting in the polls. The Sagarin rating is a composite ranked dervied from statistical analysis. Polling and computer analysis both have their faults. And, as the season wears on, both tend fo become more accurate in predicting future success based on past performance.

                      So, first the Stats Perform top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.

                      1 (1) Sam Houston 5-0
                      2 (4) Eastern Washington 6-0
                      3 (5) North Dakota State 5-0
                      4 (8) Southern Illinois 5-1
                      5 (6) Montana 4-1
                      6 (11) Villanova 4-1
                      7 (2) South Dakota State 4-1
                      8 (3) James Madison 4-1
                      9 (10) Montana State 5-1
                      10 (12) East Tennessee State 6-0
                      Link to the Stats poll:
                      https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...orm-fcs-top-25



                      Next, the FCS Coaches' Poll top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.
                      ​​​​​​
                      1 (1) Sam Houston 5-0
                      2 (4) Eastern Washington 6-0
                      3 (5) North Dakota State 5-0
                      4 (7) Southern Illinois 5-1
                      5 (9) Villanova 4-1
                      6 (6) Montana 4-1
                      7 (2) James Madison 4-1
                      8 (3) South Dakota State 4-1
                      9 (11) Montana State 5-1
                      10 (13) East Tennessee State 6-0
                      Link to the coaches' poll:
                      ​​​​​​https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...s-coaches-poll

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by JackJD View Post
                        Adding to this thread the Stats and NCAA Coaches Polls for FCS football..The polls are the collected opinions of the individuals voting in the polls. The Sagarin rating is a composite ranked dervied from statistical analysis. Polling and computer analysis both have their faults. And, as the season wears on, both tend fo become more accurate in predicting future success based on past performance.

                        So, first the Stats Perform top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.
                        1 (1) Sam Houston 5-0
                        2 (4) Eastern Washington 6-0
                        3 (5) North Dakota State 5-0
                        4 (8) Southern Illinois 5-1
                        5 (6) Montana 4-1
                        6 (11) Villanova 4-1
                        7 (2) South Dakota State 4-1
                        8 (3) James Madison 4-1
                        9 (10) Montana State 5-1
                        10 (12) East Tennessee State 6-0
                        Link to the Stats poll:
                        https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...orm-fcs-top-25



                        Next, the FCS Coaches' Poll top 10 (through October 9 games), starting with rank, the prior week's rank, the team and the team's season record.
                        ​​​​​​
                        1 (1) Sam Houston 5-0
                        2 (4) Eastern Washington 6-0
                        3 (5) North Dakota State 5-0
                        4 (7) Southern Illinois 5-1
                        5 (9) Villanova 4-1
                        6 (6) Montana 4-1
                        7 (2) James Madison 4-1
                        8 (3) South Dakota State 4-1
                        9 (11) Montana State 5-1
                        10 (13) East Tennessee State 6-0
                        Link to the coaches' poll:
                        ​​​​​​https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...s-coaches-poll
                        JMU loses to a lower-ranked team and is still ranked above Jacks

                        Wonder how much of that is the Lindenwood effect (damn Tarleton State!!!), although their drubbing of Morehead State shouldn't exactly inspire many votes either.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Good point, jakejc.

                          Another observation: The Stats and Coaches polls both ranked SIU fourth (they were ranked Stats 8 and Caoches 7, and dropped SDSU to 7th Stats and 8 in the Coaches' poll. Compare: Montana won its game against Dixie State 31-14 in Missoula; A week before, SDSU was up 35-0 over Dixie State in just the first half and, with the starting players mainly riding the bench in the second half, the Jacks went on to a 55-7 win over Dixie State. In the Stats poll, Montana moved from 6 to 5 with its win over Dixie STate; while, in the Coaches' poll, Montana remained ranked #6. So, the opinion polls have their faults -- the Sagarin statistics-based computing ranking takes into consideration strength of opponents etc. Bottom line: there's a reason they play the game. Polls and rankings are fun to follow but they aren't perfect.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by JackJD View Post
                            Good point, jakejc.

                            Another observation: The Stats and Coaches polls both ranked SIU fourth (they were ranked Stats 8 and Caoches 7, and dropped SDSU to 7th Stats and 8 in the Coaches' poll. Compare: Montana won its game against Dixie State 31-14 in Missoula; A week before, SDSU was up 35-0 over Dixie State in just the first half and, with the starting players mainly riding the bench in the second half, the Jacks went on to a 55-7 win over Dixie State. In the Stats poll, Montana moved from 6 to 5 with its win over Dixie STate; while, in the Coaches' poll, Montana remained ranked #6. So, the opinion polls have their faults -- the Sagarin statistics-based computing ranking takes into consideration strength of opponents etc. Bottom line: there's a reason they play the game. Polls and rankings are fun to follow but they aren't perfect.
                            I wish there could be a confidential disclosure of teams that refuse to play others to poll voters.

                            My biased perspective is that the Salukis have an easier time scheduling non-conference opponents than the Jacks, given comparative records when schedules were made in prior years. This could also serve to reduce lily-livered refusals to schedule teams like Jacks.

                            Lastly, I'm curious how much influence the Jacks' win at CSU has versus the Salukis' loss to the more-highly-Massey-rated Wildcats.

                            All I can say now is "go UND and UNI!" against those mulleted mutts!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Top 25 FCS teams in the Week 7 Sagarin computer ratings (games through October 16, 2021):

                              The first number is the rank among just FCS teams. The second number is the Sagarin rank for the team as determined among all 258 D1 teams. The three MVFC teams not in the top 25 are listed below by their overall D-1 ranking computed by Sagarin.

                              The USA-Today/Sagarin site:
                              https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/...-ratings-2021/


                              1 (50) South Dakota State MVFC
                              2 (58) North Dakota State MVFC
                              3 (89) Eastern Washington BIG SKY
                              4 (92) James Madison COLONIAL
                              5 (95) Southern Illinois MVFC
                              6 (101) Sam Houston State AQ7
                              7 (102) Northern Iowa MVFC
                              8 (104) Montana State BIG SKY
                              9 (105) Montana BIG SKY
                              10 (106)South Dakota MVFC
                              11 (113)Missouri State MVFC
                              12 (119)Harvard IVY LEAGUE
                              13 (120)Villanova COLONIAL
                              14 (122)Kennesaw State BIG SOUTH
                              15 (123)North Dakota MVFC
                              16 (124)Dartmouth IVY LEAGUE
                              17 (126)SE Louisiana SOUTHLAND
                              18 (128)Princeton IVY LEAGUE
                              19 (130)Incarnate Word SOUTHLAND
                              20 (132)Weber State BIG SKY
                              21 (133)UC Davis BIG SKY
                              22 (134)Sacramento State BIG SKY
                              23 (138)East Tennessee State SOUTHERN
                              24 (141)Youngstown State MVFC
                              25 (144)Chattanooga SOUTHERN

                              164 Illinois State MVFC
                              166 Western Illinois MVFC
                              178 Indiana State MVFC

                              COMPARE:
                              Top 10 Stats Perform FCS poll after 10/16:
                              1 Sam Houston (35)
                              2 Eastern Washington (14)
                              3 North Dakota State (1)
                              4 Southern Illinois
                              5 Villanova
                              6 South Dakota State
                              7 James Madison
                              8 Montana State
                              9 Southeastern Louisiana
                              10 UC Davis
                              https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...orm-fcs-top-25


                              Here's the top 10 in the FCS Coaches' Poll after 10/16
                              1 Sam Houston (26)
                              2 Eastern Washington (2)
                              3 North Dakota State
                              4 Southern Illinois
                              5 Villanova
                              6 James Madison
                              7 South Dakota State
                              8 Montana State
                              9 Southeastern Louisiana
                              10 UC Davis
                              https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/footba...s-coaches-poll




                              Last edited by JackJD; 10-18-2021, 06:28 PM.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X