Seed Scenarios

[goon]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think the best we can hope for is to avoid fargo through the quarters. We have to wait and see 1) If we hold up our end and get to that point, and 2) the NCAA doesn't screw us over. It'll be interesting to see.

if we beat usd and if ndsu loses next week I would think we would be the higher seed.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think the best we can hope for is to avoid fargo through the quarters. We have to wait and see 1) If we hold up our end and get to that point, and 2) the NCAA doesn't screw us over. It'll be interesting to see.

[Reality]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Good work on this Mr. Tibbs! My only addition to this is that the NCAA's major concern is money, so it is very unlikely that SDSU won't be going through Fargo - regardless of what happens on the field.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Update:

Elon lost today at UNH, WSU won over Portland state, and SUU is currently winning. The jacks should move up to at least number 6, and may possibly jump SHSU. who barely won over a bad ACU tram today. There will be no poll coming out this week, so we won't know for sure, but functionally we can assume we are in the 5-6 range going into the game in Verm town. If we can close out the season, we are going to be looking at a top 4 seed.

[He hate me]

Re: Seed Scenarios

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.as...20959700985304

Maybe this has already been discussed on here, but towards the end of the linked article, it states that two seeded teams from the same conference will be placed on opposite sides of the bracket. This is something that I was not aware of.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Last year is not this year. It won't happen this year.

The BSC could very well have two teams at 9-2 to finish the year (SUU, Weber). At least one would get a seed over an 8-3 MVFC. The SLC have two seeds locked up, they could have two others finish 9-2, one is McNeese. The committee will take a 9-2 McNeese over an 8-3 MVFC. We need to win out if we want a seed this year. The Bison need to split. USD need to win out. There are too many teams in what the committee will consider power conferences who will finish 9-2.

Based on how the committee has been ranking SUU, the big sky team with the best resume, to this point, I'd seriously doubt that they're a shoe in for a seed at 9-2. Elon still has two very posable games left, stony brook has a weak SoS with few quality wins. Weber is the same story. Assuming all hold to chalk, about 6 of the seeds will be spoken for, barring some big upsets to end the year. The teams fighting for those last two spots would be an 8-3 SDSU, a 9-2 Elon, a 9-2 Elon, a 9-2 Weber and maybe a 8-3 USD.

Based on how the committee is ranking these teams right now, I don't know how you can possibly say there's no shot. I don't think it's a great shot at 8-3, but I'd say it's about the same as last year: wed need two teams to lose at the right time, or based in SoS, maybe just one team.

Also, McNeese at 9-2 isn't happening over an 8-3 SDSU. If there was that chance, they'd have been included in the last poll. They're 7-2 right now. If they're on track for a seed, I'd think we would have seen them ranked in the top 10 by this point. There are too many other worthy teams ahead of them to justify them at this point. A 9-2 Mcneese is behind all the other potential 9-2 teams this year. SB, SUU, Elon, SDSU, and WSU all have a claim to seed before MSU.

[jacksfan29]

Re: Seed Scenarios

SDSU got a seed at 8-3 last year.

Last year is not this year. It won't happen this year.

The BSC could very well have two teams at 9-2 to finish the year (SUU, Weber). At least one would get a seed over an 8-3 MVFC. The SLC have two seeds locked up, they could have two others finish 9-2, one is McNeese. The committee will take a 9-2 McNeese over an 8-3 MVFC. We need to win out if we want a seed this year. The Bison need to split. USD need to win out. There are too many teams in what the committee will consider power conferences who will finish 9-2.

[Jackedforlife]

Re: Seed Scenarios

SDSU got a seed at 8-3 last year.

True, but I think there will be far more 1 and 2 loss teams than last year. That said, if we go 9-2 and the bison go 10-1 we stand a great chance of getting the 4. I know margin isn't supposed to play in but if we decisively beat the Redbirds and Yotes I think we jump Central AR even if they end with 1 loss. Quality in the MVFC is too much.

[CappinHard]

Re: Seed Scenarios

No team, not even the mighty Bison would get a seed going 8-3. SDSU and USD have to win out if they hope to be seeded.

SDSU got a seed at 8-3 last year.

[jacksfan29]

Re: Seed Scenarios

I think if USD gets a seed, it'll be as an 8-3 team. I just don't see them beating both XDSU's. In that scenario, they'd likely be the 7 or 8, feeding into JMU or NDSU. I don't see how the committee wouldn't send them up to Fargo. If we aren't seeded, I'd assume we'd host Weber/NAU/San Diego and then go play in Verm. Winner onto fargo for the quarters. I also think the reverse scenario might work out if we get the seed and USD doesn't.

This may not be a popular opinion, but if we aren't seeded, I think our best chance will be to have to go on the road to an out of region team and get fed into a different pod. I could potentially see us playing @McNeese with the winner to SHSU or @Montana/NAU/Weber with the winner onto SUU. Those might be easier paths into the quarters unseeded than a home playoff game and a second round match at USD.

No team, not even the mighty Bison would get a seed going 8-3. SDSU and USD have to win out if they hope to be seeded.

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Quick update based on the new poll just released:
1.JMU
2. JSU
3.UCA
4.NDSU
5.SHSU
6.ELON
7.SDSU
8.WOFFORD
9. USD
10. NC A&T

A couple of quick takeaways:
1) Why is NCA&T ranked? The only way they participate in th post season is if they lose their conference title, and at that point, they better not be seeded anyways. They're just wasting space in the poll. But more importantly, of you're going to rank them, why not do it both weeks? They were just as undefeated last week as they are now.

2) No big sky team. That'll likely change if SUU or Weber win out.

3) Elon is one spot ahead of the jacks and they have two tough games left (@ UNH and vs JMU). If we win out, I think they'll lose at least one of those, and we'll move up.

4) SHSU is at number 5, and if everything else holds, we might be able to jump them if we are 9-2. Not much separation between us, especially if Elon drops a game.

5) USD at 9. To me, given that they've lost two out of three, I think their ranking here is indicating that they are in the playoffs no matter what at this point. I would have expected them to fall out of the top 10, somewhere in the 11 to 14 range.

5) Jacks at 7. I think that this means that if we drop one more game, we won't be getting a seed. At 7, I don't see us moving up more than two spots to protect us against a drop if lose the last game, and I'll bet we drop out of the top 10 if we lose the ISUR game. Will a win over USD be enough to push us back up to 8 on the last weekend? We'll see.

[WILDCAT]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Defense in the Big Sky, is that even a thing?

Not unless you're Weber State

[WILDCAT]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Thanks for the correction. It'll be interesting to see how the wildcats do in the post season. Correct me if im wrong, but don't they have one of the top two defenses in the Big Sky this year?

I think Weber can perform well this year, this team is vastly different than the team that got steamrolled in Chatty last year. Weber currently has the #1 overall defense in the Big Sky.

#1 in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game.
#1 in total defense allowing only 342 yards per game
#2 in rushing defense 126 ypg
#2 in pass defense 216 ypg
#2 in interceptions with 14
#1 in turnover margin at +12
#1 in redzone defense (24 chances only 7 TD's)

I know the Big Sky isn't known for their defense, but that is the system Jay Hill is trying to instill here in Ogden and it's working. Our offense doesn't put up huge numbers but we are efficient, we don't turn the ball over, we have a balanced attack of run and pass and we control the clock. Not flashy but it gets the job done. If you can hold Eastern Washington to 20 points on their home turf you are doing something right.

Having said that Weber is no James Madison. I think Weber can compete with some of the other FCS playoff bound schools like the Dakota's, Northern Iowa, Sam Houston, Cent Ark etc. Should be an entertaining finish to the year, hopefully Weber doesn't stub their toe in their last two matchups.

[BTownJack]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Thanks for the correction. It'll be interesting to see how the wildcats do in the post season. Correct me if im wrong, but don't they have one of the top two defenses in the Big Sky this year?

Defense in the Big Sky, is that even a thing?

[Mr_Tibbs]

Re: Seed Scenarios

Weber State plays Idaho State at home this year. Everything else is spot on.

Thanks for the correction. It'll be interesting to see how the wildcats do in the post season. Correct me if im wrong, but don't they have one of the top two defenses in the Big Sky this year?