Game Week: North Dakota State University

[JackJD]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

...And this next statement isn't meant as trolling or to ruffle any feathers, but NDSU always has a huge target on their backs every time they take the field against anyone and teams get up for them probably more than anyone on their schedule....

I think most observers of the Bison would agree about the "target on back" and teams getting up for the Bison vs. any other team on the schedule -- unfortunately for the opponents, that statement is a basic fact. The Bison show up for every game "here's what we do and it's done consistently well." Over the last 10 years, how many FCS programs have consistently played at such a level? (How many FBS programs have consistently played at such a level?) But, I'm counting on the fact that the Bison are human and are capable of making mistakes. I'm also realistic enough to know that the Bison seem to be the least-likely program to make mistakes. So, what will the Jacks, coaches and players do Saturday to facilitate Bison mistakes and to perhaps come up with a surprise or two? I think the game has great potential to be a very entertaining slug-fest (see NDSU v. SDSU, 2007) but to get it to that status, the burden is on the Jacks. I think we can do it and I'm predicting we do (predictions aren't worth much, are they) but I certainly understand why the odds-makers pick the Bison and until there is consistent proof of the contrary, 13>1's statement is on solid ground.

My guess for the game: Marker stays in Brookings, SDSU 30, NDSU 24.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

Do we have an over/under on the amount of times we try to run that inside shovel pass to Dallas? I'm setting it at 2.5

[91jack]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

In all fairness that number does drop to 218 yards per contest in conference play. The last two weeks they haven't topped 200. For perspective, in conference play SDSU has rushed for 188 yards per game. We actually out rushed them against Missouri State and Western Illinois. NDSU went for greater yardage against UNI and YSU (obviously). The only uncommon conference opponent we have is SDSU played MSU (368 yards) and they played ISU (246 yards). Not exactly defensive juggernauts between the two.

Not sure what it proves. I just like stats.

I think a lot of this comes down to if SDSU gets down by 10+, they throw the ball.
They ran 23 times against UNI (2.3 Y/C) and 16 times against YSU (4.1 Y/C). You don't put up a lot of yards on that many carries.
SDSU had 43 carries against MSU (6.1 Y/C), 39 carries against WIU (4.9 Y/C) and 55 carries against SIU (6.7 Y/C).
I know that SDSU has passing weapons so I'm not saying that they should run the ball all of the time but I am saying that when you have 16 carries in a game, you don't run for 200 yards very often.
P.S. I don't think you want to run right up the gut against NDSU all day (I'm sure I'll get a few no-duh's on that). In other words, the defense we are playing against makes a difference in game plans.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

the closer we get to game time, the more worried I get about the Bison. (which makes sense, as they are very good)

(however, with the way my "feelings" have gone this year... who knows?)

Just having trouble seeing the Jackrabbits scoring enough to beat them. Their defense is better than last year, and their offense is much better.

Here is the statistical breakdown of the offensive improvement in MVFC play...
2016 2017
Rushing YPG: 236 218
Passing YPG: 144 178
Points per game: 26.6 34.2


Defensively in MVFC play...
2016 2017
Rushing YPG: 106 94
Passing YPG: 206 143.4
Points per game: 13.2 12.2

In all fairness, they play the three best offenses in the conference over the final three weeks. Again, not sure what any of this means, but it is certainly interesting.

[13>1]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

In all fairness that number does drop to 218 yards per contest in conference play. The last two weeks they haven't topped 200. For perspective, in conference play SDSU has rushed for 188 yards per game. We actually out rushed them against Missouri State and Western Illinois. NDSU went for greater yardage against UNI and YSU (obviously). The only uncommon conference opponent we have is SDSU played MSU (368 yards) and they played ISU (246 yards). Not exactly defensive juggernauts between the two.

Not sure what it proves. I just like stats.

Not really disagreeing as the numbers you provided do say a lot. However, as you mentioned towards the end about not being sure what those numbers prove, there are so many different variables in play that common opponent comparisons don't always tell the whole story. I will say that RB injuries lately have played a big part in our rushing production, so much so that as many of you know we've pulled the shirt on a kid 8 games into the season. I also think that with our backup QB being out with an injury that they have limited Easton running the ball as well, and he usually contributes to those rushing totals. And this next statement isn't meant as trolling or to ruffle any feathers, but NDSU always has a huge target on their backs every time they take the field against anyone and teams get up for them probably more than anyone on their schedule. Those teams sell out like crazy to stop the run because they know that's what we do. From what I sense with some of your fans posts in this thread, the game plan of stopping the run will be the key to success against the Bison. I agree with this. I'm also a firm believer that when these two teams get together that anything that has happened up to this point doesn't mean a thing, it's a rivalry game after all. I'm getting more and more excited as Saturday approaches. Hoping for 60 minutes of clean hard hitting smash mouth football. Go Bison!

[da_coach]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

the closer we get to game time, the more worried I get about the Bison. (which makes sense, as they are very good)

(however, with the way my "feelings" have gone this year... who knows?)

Just having trouble seeing the Jackrabbits scoring enough to beat them. Their defense is better than last year, and their offense is much better.

[WestSideRabbit]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

Try 300+... they're averaging 278 per game. If we're playing from behind, they'll go over 350.

In all fairness that number does drop to 218 yards per contest in conference play. The last two weeks they haven't topped 200. For perspective, in conference play SDSU has rushed for 188 yards per game. We actually out rushed them against Missouri State and Western Illinois. NDSU went for greater yardage against UNI and YSU (obviously). The only uncommon conference opponent we have is SDSU played MSU (368 yards) and they played ISU (246 yards). Not exactly defensive juggernauts between the two.

Not sure what it proves. I just like stats.

[CappinHard]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

Me too - just score. Unless we get two or three timely turnovers, I'd guess we are going to have to put up 33+ points to win. They'll be able to pile up something like 200 rushing yards if we are playing from behind.

Try 300+... they're averaging 278 per game. If we're playing from behind, they'll go over 350.

[Southeast]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

I would be fine with 5 play drives if they end in TDs. We just cannot have the 3,4, and 5 play drives thst end in punts/TOs.

Me too - just score. Unless we get two or three timely turnovers, I'd guess we are going to have to put up 33+ points to win. They'll be able to pile up something like 200 rushing yards if we are playing from behind.

[SoDakJack]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

Just wanted to add that "forcing Stick to pass" on 3rd downs isn't exactly ideal, either. He's a decent passer, too.

It's just that it's our only hope. (I just don't want people getting upset because they get held to 3rd and 5+ and Stick actually converts them... it's not like he sucks.) They are going to have to do it repeatedly, to have a chance.

It's picking our poison. That's what you have to do against great teams. I'm way more concerned with their rushing. There are more chances for a stop on a pass (dropped ball, bad throw, good defense) than there is on a rush IMO

[SoDakJack]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

I get your point about 13 or 14 play drives but SDSU does not do that against anybody in the MVFC(except for SIU).
SDSU has had 56 drives in their 5 conference games. They have only had 9 of 56 drives that have lasted 10 plays or more. Of those 9 drives, 6 of them have lasted exactly 10 plays.
SDSU did have drives of 13, 14 and 11 plays against SIU but those are their only drives of 11 plays or more all conference season.
SDSU had 4 of their 6-10 play drives against Western Illinois so they has success against them.
If you take out the games against SIU and Western Illinois, SDSU has 2 of their 33 drives that lasted exactly 10 plays in 3 games.
Not to say that those defenses are bad but that's not a good trend going against NDSU. If SDSU can have 4 or 5 drives of 8-10 plays, that would be a great sign. I don't see it happening but I hope I am pleasantly surprised.

I would be fine with 5 play drives if they end in TDs. We just cannot have the 3,4, and 5 play drives thst end in punts/TOs.

[91jack]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

SDSU has to stop the run on 1st and 2nd down. I am willing to take my chances on Stick having to make plays on 2nd and 3rd and long. If NDSU's yards to gain on 3rd down is at 4 yards or less, SDSU is in trouble. I also don't think that SDSU will have great success sustaining long drives to score. NDSU's defense is too good to be able to have those 13 or 14 play drives.

I get your point about 13 or 14 play drives but SDSU does not do that against anybody in the MVFC(except for SIU).
SDSU has had 56 drives in their 5 conference games. They have only had 9 of 56 drives that have lasted 10 plays or more. Of those 9 drives, 6 of them have lasted exactly 10 plays.
SDSU did have drives of 13, 14 and 11 plays against SIU but those are their only drives of 11 plays or more all conference season.
SDSU had 4 of their 6-10 play drives against Western Illinois so they has success against them.
If you take out the games against SIU and Western Illinois, SDSU has 2 of their 33 drives that lasted exactly 10 plays in 3 games.
Not to say that those defenses are bad but that's not a good trend going against NDSU. If SDSU can have 4 or 5 drives of 8-10 plays, that would be a great sign. I don't see it happening but I hope I am pleasantly surprised.

[CappinHard]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

Just wanted to add that "forcing Stick to pass" on 3rd downs isn't exactly ideal, either. He's a decent passer, too.

It's just that it's our only hope. (I just don't want people getting upset because they get held to 3rd and 5+ and Stick actually converts them... it's not like he sucks.) They are going to have to do it repeatedly, to have a chance.

He doesn't suck, but he's not a great passer either. It's known that the formula for having a chance against NDSU is to make Stick beat you. If he does, hats off to him. If you don't go in with that game plan though, NDSU will run all over you.

[da_coach]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

Just wanted to add that "forcing Stick to pass" on 3rd downs isn't exactly ideal, either. He's a decent passer, too.

It's just that it's our only hope. (I just don't want people getting upset because they get held to 3rd and 5+ and Stick actually converts them... it's not like he sucks.) They are going to have to do it repeatedly, to have a chance.

[JackJD]

Re: Game Week: North Dakota State University

When teams have played each other as often as NDSU/SDSU/USD have there really aren't any surprises. It comes down to execution of the game plan and I think that is where NDSU is so much better at than anyone in the country.....

Agreed: The Bison know what the Jacks will do and the Jacks know what the Bison will do. In Zimmer's analysis in the Argus Leader article "Dakota Marker: Five Keys to a South Dakota State Victory", he paraphrases Coach Klieman:

Bison coach Chris Klieman acknowledged that the formula his team wants to use to beat the Jacks is the same one they used in last year’s 36-10 playoff rout of SDSU – keep Taryn Christion and Co. off the field. SDSU ran 78 offensive snaps in their win over NDSU, just 39 in their loss.

Link to Zimm's analysis if you haven't read it: http://www.argusleader.com/story/spo...ory/820806001/