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I remember some time back in one of the Basketball threads that filbert posted his thoughts on how big a lead needs to be before it is safe to say the game is in hand (see Billy "somebody put him out to pasture" Packer)
In any case, this guy seems to have done his homework and has a formula figured out and even a neat calculator figure on the website.
http://www.slate.com/id/2185975/
For those that want the quick and dirty:
- Take the number of points one team is ahead.
- Subtract three.
- Add a half-point if the team that is ahead has the ball, and subtract a half-point if the other team has the ball. (Numbers less than zero become zero.)
- Square that.
If the result is greater than the number of seconds left in the game, the lead is safe.
In any case, this guy seems to have done his homework and has a formula figured out and even a neat calculator figure on the website.
http://www.slate.com/id/2185975/
For those that want the quick and dirty:
- Take the number of points one team is ahead.
- Subtract three.
- Add a half-point if the team that is ahead has the ball, and subtract a half-point if the other team has the ball. (Numbers less than zero become zero.)
- Square that.
If the result is greater than the number of seconds left in the game, the lead is safe.