Extra Point - Predicting the 2005 Season

[Dakota]

Extra Point - Predicting the 2005 Season
By Matt Dougherty, The Sports Network
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default...agn3976437.htm

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Folks in Jacksonville, Alabama, Greenville, South Carolina and Richmond, Virginia have to be licking their chops. Only three short days until their teams, along with 22 other I-AA squads, step on the field to kick off the 2005 season.

Which means, for a few more days at least, I still get to enjoy the freedom that comes with preseason predictions and rankings that have yet to be proven terribly wrong. One more chance to get fans’ blood boiling and message boards humming before the predictions are finally torn apart by the play on the field and I take in a two-game weekend in Alabama.

So, without further ado, the final look at the preseason includes conference rankings that will satisfy some (at least one league) and a look at some potential regular season and playoff highlights.

[Dakota]

Re: Extra Point - Predicting the 2005 Season

2005 Conference Rankings:

1. Atlantic 10
Good News: Going into the season, just about everything is good news. The Atlantic 10 placed four teams in the postseason last year, rolled off a 12-4 record, and won the national championship for the second season in a row. Eight teams appear to have the ability to compete for a playoff spot, and Richmond should be much improved on the field if not in the won-loss column.

Bad News: Not much has gone wrong, but the league might be too deep for its own good this year. The chance of the selection committee taking four teams from one league for the third year in a row is remote, and if a dominant team doesn’t emerge the A-10 could be left without a seed on selection day.

In The End: Top to bottom, the Atlantic 10 is the deepest league. While plenty of teams are capable of making the playoffs and even the national championship game, no team is likely to finish with only one loss. It will be difficult to get four teams to the postseason again, so three teams will likely have to emerge from a very deep and talented group.

2. Big Sky
Good News: At least three teams (Montana, Montana State and Eastern Washington) have a strong nucleus back and appear primed for a playoff run, and two others (Portland State and Northern Arizona) could put together a very nice season. Both Montana and Eastern Washington are legitimate top five contenders for the national championship.

Bad News: The bottom three teams (Weber State, Idaho State, Sacramento State) leave something to be desired, and the league would like to improve on its 6-8 mark against the Great West.

In the End: Montana and Eastern Washington will battle it out for conference supremacy, with the Grizzlies earning the automatic bid with a home win against the Eagles. Both teams have a good shot at long playoff runs, and either Montana State or Portland State will grab a third playoff bid for the league. Struggles from the bottom three teams and just slightly less depth in the league will be all that keeps the Big Sky from the No. 1 spot among I-AA conferences.

3. Gateway
Good News: For the third year in a row, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky and UNI have playoff-caliber rosters. UNI should jump back into the postseason after missing last year. Youngstown State might not earn a postseason nod, but appears to be headed back in the right direction.

Bad News: Part of the reason the top three teams are in good position for the playoffs is that they figure to beat up on the bottom of the league again. Teams placing fourth through eighth did not win a game against the top three last year, and with the possible exception of Youngstown State no one appears to have improved enough to provide much of a test this season.

In the End: Southern Illinois, UNI and Western Kentucky should all win enough games against the weaker teams in the league to earn postseason berths. With the conference riding a five-game playoff losing streak, one of those teams should end the struggles and win a few games in the postseason.

4. Southern
Good News: Like last year, two very legitimate national title contenders reside in the Southern Conference. Furman might be the preseason favorite for the national title, and Georgia Southern will be in the mix come November. Appalachian State should be a more balanced and better team than a year ago, and Western Carolina could make a move up the standings.

Bad News: Wofford lost major contributors on both lines and at quarterback and could have a tough time entering the playoff mix again. Chattanooga, The Citadel and Elon still leave plenty to be desired, though the young Mocs do appear to have a bright future in a year or two.

In the End: Nothing much really changes from last season. Furman and Georgia Southern will end up among the top playoff contenders, but this time at least one of them will fare better in the postseason. Appalachian State takes Wofford’s place as a team that just misses the postseason, and Western Carolina moves up a spot to fourth place.

5. Southland
Good News: The Southland is usually pretty competitive from top to bottom, and should remain that way this year. Northwestern State will have the best chance to make a run in the postseason, and Texas State should post its best record in more than a decade. Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin could sneak in the playoff picture, and the rest of the conference is competitive. Southeastern Louisiana enters the league to add a sixth game to the conference schedule.

Bad News: Sam Houston State figures to slip some, and McNeese State might still be a year away from returning to a top spot in the conference. Nicholls State and Southeastern Louisiana will stay competitive but have a tough time posting a winning record overall.

In the End: Northwestern State takes the conference title for the second year in a row, and if the Demons don’t get sent to Montana again they have a good shot to win a game or two. Texas State earns the 9-2 record they need to qualify for the playoffs as an at-large team. On the other hand, the remaining teams hover around the .500 mark and nobody makes a serious push for an at- large berth.

[Dakota]

Re: Extra Point - Predicting the 2005 Season

6. Great West
Good News: The fledgling conference made a splash in year one with an 8-6 mark against the Big Sky and notched some big wins against Southland competition as well. The top three (North Dakota State, Cal Poly and UC Davis) are all top 25 caliber teams and have a chance to record quality victories for the league against challenging schedules.

Bad News: Only two teams (Cal Poly and Southern Utah) are eligible for the postseason, and since the Mustangs’ 9-2 mark didn’t get them in the field of 16 last year it’s hard to imagine what will. Southern Utah is down, and Northern Colorado and South Dakota State could struggle in their tougher games.

In the End: The conference is still in flux, with four teams adding scholarships. Things get even harder next year when Northern Colorado leaves for the Big Sky. But the top three teams are all very talented and will battle it out for the league title until the final week. In non-conference play, expect all three contenders to knock off at least one solid team from a major conference.

7. Patriot
Good News: The Lehigh-Lafayette rivalry is hotter than ever and both teams bring back most of the nucleus from a playoff roster. The Mountain Hawks have the inside track to the title with a home date against the Leopards. Fordham should move in the right direction, and though they will probably still occupy the bottom two spots in the standings, Holy Cross and Georgetown should both improve.

Bad News: Colgate won’t fall off as far as some people think, but the Raiders will have a tough time challenging for another national championship or even playoff berth. Bucknell loses a good amount of its nucleus from a 7-4 team, and the league will always be pressed to earn a second bid to the postseason.

In the End: The Mountain Hawks will claim the conference crown and notch a nice non-conference win by knocking off either Delaware or Harvard on the road. However, Lafayette will suffer too many defeats to qualify for the playoff field, and the Patriot League becomes a one-bid conference again.

8. Ivy
Good News: Harvard comes off an undefeated season and enters the 2005 campaign on a I-AA best 11-game winning streak. Penn will always be in the mix despite some major losses on defense. Brown could be this year’s Harvard. The Bears have 16 starters returning (8 offense/8 defense) and have All-Conference players at running back and receiver. Cornell and Princeton could finish above .500 as well.

Bad News: Yale loses its top skill position players. Columbia shows little sign for hope, and Dartmouth should improve under Buddy Teevens in time but it probably won’ t happen right away.

In The End: The only real measuring stick for Ivy League teams comes in games against Patriot League foes, and the Ivies went 6-9 against their Northeast rivals in 2004. While the leagues are comparable, the Patriot is probably a bit deeper. Brown could make a push up the league, but still only three teams appear to have a legitimate shot at the conference crown.

9. OVC
Good News: Jacksonville State has established itself as a consistent top 25 team. Eastern Kentucky has a great tradition and will always at least be competitive, and Eastern Illinois and Murray State have a shot to make a run back to the top of the league.

Bad News: Samford loses Ray Nelson and Efrem Hill, and Charles Anthony departs Tennessee State. Too many teams are left without much chance at a winning record or going on a run to win the conference. If the league doesn’t improve on its 6-10 mark against I-AA competition, a second playoff berth won’t be forthcoming.

In the End: Jacksonville State makes it a three-peat and loses only one game in conference play again, but also bows out in the first round of the playoffs for the third year in a row. Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Illinois both improve, but once again this is a one-bid conference. To have any chance to turn that around, someone has to score a big non-conference win and the ineptitude against Gateway foes (0-6 in 2004) has to change.

10. MEAC
Good News: Hampton is loaded again and has a good shot at posting at least another 10-1 mark in the regular season. South Carolina State should approach last year’s 9-2 finish, and North Carolina A & T has a chance to put up a much better year with a healthier roster.

Bad News: Bethune-Cookman is a perennial contender in the league, but loses most of its top players from a year ago. Morgan State and Delaware State have a long way to go to match last year’s win total, and Norfolk State has to right the ship.

In the End: The Pirates win the conference title but fall in the first round of the playoffs for the second year in a row. South Carolina State has another two or three loss season, and the MEAC teams win a majority of their games against SWAC competition. But without any real marquee non-conference or playoff wins, the league will continue to reside toward the bottom of I-AA.

[Dakota]

Re: Extra Point - Predicting the 2005 Season

11. Big South
Good News: Coastal Carolina is on the rise after going 10-1 in its second season, and Gardner-Webb has a solid program. The Chanticleers, Liberty and VMI all take on schedules that give them an opportunity for wins against top teams from playoff conferences.

Bad News: VMI and Charleston Southern are among the bottom 10 or 15 teams in all of I-AA, and Liberty and Gardner-Webb are still in the bottom half. While Coastal Carolina is improving in a hurry, the jury’s still out on just how good the Chants are right now after loading up on an easy schedule in 2004.

In the End: Coastal Carolina goes 9-2 and notches a win against South Carolina State, but it won’t be enough to earn the Big South a playoff bid. Gardner- Webb, Liberty and VMI have a good shot to take down some of the weaker teams from major conferences, but the league will fail to produce that one big win again.

12. SWAC
Good News: With Bruce Eugene back at the helm, Grambling State will be back among the top teams in the conference. Alabama State returns key players from last year’s SWAC champion, and Southern and Alabama A & M should compete for division titles. Arkansas Pine-Bluff tries to build on a rise in the standings last year.

Bad News: There are still too many porous teams in the league. Texas Southern, Prairie View A & M, and Mississippi Valley State are among the worst scholarship teams in I-AA. Alcorn State could slip a bit without Donald Carrie, and Jackson State has a ways to go to return to its glory days.

In the End: The top teams in the SWAC play on Thanksgiving Weekend and the championship game participants play in December, so barring a miracle the SWAC will stay out of the postseason party. With nine games against conference opponents, SWAC teams don’t produce much of a resume against other I-AA teams but need to better last year’s 6-12 mark to gain respect as a league

[Dakota]

predict how the postseason/ (potential) highlights

Below, I take a stab at this year’s playoff field and predict how the postseason will turn out, with weekly (potential) highlights included from regular season games.

Sept 1: While they can’t quite pull out the victory, Jacksonville State plays well in a 20-17 home loss to Furman.

Sept.3: Erik Meyer throws for 355 yards and four touchdowns, Eric Kimble catches 11 passes for 162 yards and two scores, and the Eastern Washington offense steamrolls San Jose State in a 42-34 "upset" win. After the game, San Jose State players say: "Those guys weren't bad for a Division II team."

Sept. 10: Proving that last season’s record was no fluke, Coastal Carolina takes James Madison to the limit before bowing out, 27-21, to the defending champions.

Sept. 17: Northwestern State climbs into the top five by knocking off its second I-A opponent of the season, this time taking down UL-Lafayette, 30-21, while Southern Illinois trips up Western Michigan, 24-20.

Sept. 24: Brown ends Harvard’s 11-game winning streak with a 28-24 win in Cambridge. Nick Hartigan and Clifton Dawson both run for 150 yards and two scores in the game.

Oct. 1: In a shootout, New Hampshire holds off Villanova, 41-35, behind four touchdown passes from Ricky Santos and 10 receptions by David Ball.

Oct. 8: Jacksonville State suffers its only loss in Ohio Valley Conference play when it bows out to Murray State, 27-23. North Dakota State scores a huge road win by knocking off Cal Poly, 20-13.

Oct. 15: In a day of showdowns in major conferences, Massachusetts claims the biggest win by taking down No. 1 James Madison, 31-13. . Montana ends Eastern Washington’s undefeated run with a 34-23 home victory. In the Southern Conference, Georgia Southern notches a big road victory with a 31-28 win at Appalachian State.

Oct. 20: Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin play a game with no off-the- field or postgame incidents and no suspensions resulting. Oh, and the Bearkats win, 34-20.

Oct. 22: The Dukes bounce back by winning the matchup of defending champions, 21-13, at Delaware. Southern Illinois, UNI and Western Kentucky all win to improve their marks to 4-0 in conference play before playing each other over the season’s final three weeks. Northwestern State knocks off Texas State to earn a leg up in the Southland race. Hampton solidifies its spot at the top of the MEAC standings with a convincing 38-17 win against South Carolina State.

Oct. 29: New Hampshire scores a huge victory in its quest for a playoff berth by taking down Massachusetts, 31-27. Colgate pulls off a 17-14 upset of Lehigh, pulling into a three-way tie with the Mountain Hawks and Lafayette for the Patriot League lead in the process. Western Kentucky takes a big step toward the Gateway title with a 24-21 win against Southern Illinois.

Nov. 5: The Hilltoppers grab a firm grasp of the Gateway Conference by knocking off UNI, 17-13. Furman notches a huge road win by taking down Georgia Southern, 27-20. Lafayette makes it a two-way tie with Lehigh by upending Colgate, 24-17.

Nov. 12: In a shootout rivaling last year’s epic, Eastern Washington’s Erik Meyer throws five touchdown passes to edge out Montana State and Travis Lulay, 45-41.North Dakota State takes home the Dakota Marker by knocking off South Dakota State, 30-14.

Nov. 19: With the Patriot League title on the line, Lehigh comes up big with a convincing 27-10 win against rival Lafayette. After a year of close losses, Richmond finally pulls an upset that shakes up the playoff bracket by edging William & Mary, 28-24. Villanova takes down Delaware, leaving the Wildcats, Tribe and Blue Hens teetering on the playoff bubble. Montana State ends Montana’s eight-game winning streak with a 38-30 win in Bozeman. Brown beats Columbia to take home the Ivy League title. Hampton finishes a perfect regular season with a 52-14 thumping of Savannah State.

Nov. 20: On selection Sunday, William & Mary, Villanova, Delaware and Appalachian State are all left home with 7-4 records as Texas State garners the final at-large bid with a 9-2 mark.

[Dakota]

The I-AA playoff field shapes up like this

The I-AA playoff field shapes up like this:

Automatic Bids: James Madison (A-10), Furman (Southern), Lehigh (Patriot), Hampton (MEAC), Jacksonville State (OVC), Western Kentucky (Gateway), Northwestern State (Southland), Montana (Big Sky)

At-Large Bids: Massachusetts (A-10), New Hampshire (A-10), Georgia Southern (SoCon), Southern Illinois (Gateway), UNI (Gateway), Texas State (Southland), Montana State (Big Sky), Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

Top Four Seeds: Furman, Montana, Western Kentucky, James Madison

Top Bracket: Furman vs Lehigh, UNI vs Jacksonville State, James Madison vs Hampton, Massachusetts vs Georgia Southern

Bottom Bracket: Montana vs Texas State, Southern Illinois vs New Hampshire, Western Kentucky vs Eastern Washington, Northwestern State vs Montana State.

Nov. 26: Furman defeats Lehigh to set up a matchup with UNI, which takes down Jacksonville State. Massachusetts and James Madison move on to a semifinal matchup after winning first round games. In the other bracket, Montana takes down Texas State, while Southern Illinois runs all over New Hampshire. Eastern Washington goes on the road to take down Western Kentucky, but won’t play Montana State again as the Bobcats fall at Northwestern State. In other action, Grambling State rides four Bruce Eugene touchdown passes to outgun Southern, 42-34.

Quarterfinals: Furman vs UNI, Massachusetts vs James Madison; Montana vs Southern Illinois, Eastern Washington vs Northwestern State

Dec. 3: In the game of the day, Massachusetts’ defense holds strong on a goal line stand in the final minute and the Minutemen take down defending champion James Madison, 17-13. Furman uses three Ingle Martin touchdown passes to whip UNI, 34-13. Southern Illinois ends Montana’s 17-game home winning streak and stuns the crowd in Missoula with a come-from-behind, 34-31, victory. Meyer tosses three scores and offense beats defense when Eastern Washington walks away with a 28-17 win at Northwestern State.

Semifinals: Furman vs Massachusetts; Southern Illinois vs Eastern Washington

Dec. 9/10: In the SWAC title game, Grambling State takes home the title with a 28-24 win against Alabama State. Southern Illinois gets revenge for its 2004 playoff loss by this time scoring on the final drive and outlasting Eastern Washington, 31-28. Furman, playing like a team on the mission, takes out Massachusetts, 27-14.

National Championship Game: Furman vs Southern Illinois

Dec. 16: After Joel Sambursky leads the Salukis to a gametying field goal, Ingle Martin takes Furman 60 yards in under two minutes and the Paladins take home the national championship, 23-20, on a last second field goal.

There you have it, call me Chris Berman, but for the second year in a row I’ll predict a Furman-Southern Illinois national title game. And, thankfully, now we’ll finally start deciding things on the field instead of in print.