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Week Four: Under the Radar

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  • Week Four: Under the Radar

    Matt Dougherty, Executive Director of I-AA Football
    http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default...oint.htm<br />

    [hr]
    No. 12 Cal Poly (1-1) at South Dakota State (1-1), 8:00

    Cal Poly made a huge statement by thumping Montana State on Saturday and moved from No. 18 to No. 12 in this week’s top 25. The Mustangs don’t get a break this week by making a trip to Brookings to face another team that made waves against a Montana foe a week ago. South Dakota State held Montana’s offense in check but couldn’t get anything going against the Grizzly defense in a 7-0 loss. The Jackrabbits held Cal Poly to only 14 points a year ago, and have shown the ability to play defense against top opponents. But the Jackrabbits don’t have the offense to score enough against Cal Poly’s terrific defense. The Mustangs figure to force a few turnovers on their side of the ball, and an improved Cal Poly offense will cash in enough to come away with a road victory.
    Prediction: Cal Poly 20, South Dakota State 10


    No. 8 North Dakota State (3-0) at No. 18 Montana State (1-2), 3:05

    I’m making the trek out to Bozeman for this contest, and I’ll admit I didn’t expect to see a team that looks as good or better than anyone in the country. But that’s what North Dakota State has done in the first three weeks of the season. The Bison have outscored opponents by more than 40 points per game (45.0 to 4.7), and those numbers include a 35-7 blowout win at Northwestern State and 41-0 whitewash of Weber State. North Dakota State is getting the job done in all facets of the game with a balance between rushing and passing and holding opponents to only 225 yards per game. The Bison have also forced 11 turnovers while committing only two and average more than 25 yards per kickoff return and nearly 20 yards per punt return. North Dakota State has an 11-3 record as a I-AA program, and every loss came by three points or less. The Bison have already proven themselves as an emerging program, and they’ll get a chance to continue to impress with a remaining schedule that includes trips to Cal Poly and Southern Illinois and a home date with UC Davis. But first, the Bison have to take on an angry Montana State team. The Bobcats were whipped, 38-10, at Cal Poly as they couldn’t get anything going on offense or shut down the Mustang running attack. With linebacker Mac Mollohan out, the Bobcats could have a tough time shutting down Kyle Steffes and a North Dakota State running attack that averages more than 190 yards per game. By all accounts, North Dakota State should win this game. The Bison have dominated through the first three games and have a more balanced team. But they could also be due for a performance that isn’t quite as perfect, and the Montana State offense could be ready for a breakout day. Travis Lulay isn’t likely to struggle for a second week in a row, and the Bobcat offense will get a boost from the return of leading receiver Rick Gatewood. If Montana State falls to 1-3, it can pretty much forget about any shot of an at-large bid to the postseason. North Dakota State is still one of the best teams in the country, but I’ll take a hunch and say the Bobcats play with a sense of urgency and receive a huge day from their Payton Award candidate quarterback to record a critical home win.
    Prediction: Montana State 31, North Dakota State 24

    UC Davis (1-2) at Sacramento State (0-3), 5:05

    The Aggie defense held New Hampshire to 17 points, Portland State to 14 and Stanford to just three as two touchdowns came on fumble recoveries in last week’s 20-17 shocker. Facing a Sacramento State offense that averages 9.3 ppg should allow the Aggie defense to continue to excel. UC Davis found a bit of offense by scoring the last 20 points in the win against Stanford. If Jon Grant takes care of the ball, the Aggies will be extremely tough for anyone to beat. The Hornets’ defense could keep them in the game early against the Aggies, who could deal with a bit of a letdown after last week’s upset. But the &quot;Causeway Classic&quot; is still a big game, and the UC Davis defense has the ability to overwhelm Sacramento State and bring the Aggies back to .500.
    Prediction: UC Davis 20, Sacramento State 6


    Northern Colorado (2-1) at Portland State (2-1), 9:00

    The Great West has already posted some nice wins against Big Sky opponents, but Portland State has yet to fall victim. The Vikings thrashed UC Davis to close the 2004 regular season, and scored a hard-fought, 14-12, win against the Aggies two weeks ago. With games at Eastern Washington, Boise State and Montana in October, the Vikings will need to come up with another big defensive effort against the Bears. Northern Colorado looks better than the 2004 team that finished 2-9, and has run the ball well thus far. But the Bears haven’t faced a defense like Portland State, which has allowed just 148 rushing yards on the ground in two victories against I-AA opponents. Joe Rubin has kept the Portland State running attack going with 156 yards in last week’s win against Sacramento State and should find plenty of room to run against the Bears. The Vikings will need Sawyer Smith to play more consistently against a treacherous October schedule, but they won’t need much out of the passing game in a win against the Bears.
    Prediction: Portland State 30, Northern Colorado 13
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